To gain a full picture of the current housing market situation, it’s essential to compare the latest data from BIK with data from the first half of 2023, which had similar conditions for obtaining a mortgage. It’s worth recalling that in February 2023, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) eased creditworthiness assessment requirements, reducing the buffer from 5 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points. This change came as a relief after a long period of strict regulations and led to an increase in mortgage inquiries and approvals, even before the government’s BK 2% program officially launched.
Currently, the situation is somewhat similar—interest rates remain high, though they are 1 percentage point lower than in the first half of last year. Banks are now calculating creditworthiness using the lowest minimum buffer of 2.5 percentage points. However, these conditions remain challenging for borrowers. According to our research among home-seeking clients, the most common reasons preventing transactions are property prices and low creditworthiness.
According to BIK data, in September, 28,510 credit applications were submitted to banks, an 8% increase from the previous month. While we don’t yet know how many of these will result in approved loans, we can assume that the number will be relatively high. For comparison, 14,800 mortgage agreements were signed in August, and between March and May 2023, the peak was around 11,000. Simultaneously, the average loan amount requested in September rose to PLN 444,740.
What does this mean? The housing market is currently seeing high activity from a different demand group than in the first half of 2023. This group is applying for larger loans not only because of higher housing prices but also because they have sufficient creditworthiness and can afford more expensive and larger properties. These are relatively affluent individuals who are not purchasing their first homes but are instead upgrading their current properties with the help of a mortgage. This is confirmed by developer sales results in the seven main markets—they are not particularly high but are also not as low as one might expect following the closure of the BK 2% program.
Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research, Otodom Analytics
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/kto-obecnie-kupuje-mieszkania-komentarz-do-wrzesniowych-danych-bik-90190
