The holiday season sometimes brings days when not much happens in the markets. This year, there have been relatively few such days, but yesterday was certainly not an exciting one for most currency pairs. Given that we are waiting for decisions from central banks, this is quite understandable.
Data from the U.S.
Yesterday, we received data on orders from the U.S. In monthly terms, orders for goods excluding transportation fell by 0.2%, slightly more than analysts had expected. On the other hand, there was a significant surprise in the data on durable goods orders in the U.S. A large increase of 5% was expected, but the actual figure came in at a staggering 9.9%. The reason for this jump is believed to be increased orders in the aerospace industry, which has recently faced significant challenges, including those experienced by one of the world’s largest aircraft manufacturers. This allowed the dollar to regain some value against major currencies. However, it remains notably weak compared to levels seen just a few days ago.
Germany: A Neutral Stance
Markets are currently awaiting mid-September, when we will see the ECB’s decision, followed by the Fed’s decision about a week later. Until then, the atmosphere may calm down somewhat. This is further exacerbated by more neutral data. This morning, the German GDP was exactly in line with expectations. Although this was the final reading, investors had already received preliminary data earlier. It’s worth noting, however, that this marks the third consecutive quarter of decline within the past year. While the drop was only 0.1%, it is still a very weak result. Despite this, the euro remains close to multi-month highs against the dollar.
Unemployment Back at 5%
After a month below this threshold—also marking the lowest unemployment rate since the end of the fiction of full employment during the systemic changes—the unemployment rate has again risen to 5%. Considering the employment data in the enterprise sector, which showed a 0.4% year-on-year decline, a rebound in the unemployment rate was expected. On the other hand, it’s important to remember that with such low accuracy, rounding issues in very small changes could account for yesterday’s 0.1% increase. Currency markets received this information neutrally, likely waiting to see if potential problems in the Polish labor market will be confirmed in subsequent data.
Today’s Macro Data Calendar Highlights:
– 14:00 – Hungary – Interest Rate Decision
– 16:00 – U.S. – Consumer Confidence Index – Conference Board
Maciej Przygórzewski – Chief Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat.pl
Source: [CEO.com.pl](https://ceo.com.pl/dolar-odrabia-straty-ale-ostroznie-slabe-dane-z-niemiec-bezrobocie-w-polsce-znow-na-5-92362)
