According to the World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the global GDP to grow by 3.1 percent this year. This is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the October projection of 2.9 percent. The IMF assesses that the global economy has proven to be surprisingly resilient. However, the growth outlook of 3.1 percent for this year and 3.2 percent for 2025 remains significantly below the average growth of 3.8 percent during the years 2000–2019. Factors hindering growth include central banks’ measures aimed at controlling inflation, the withdrawal of fiscal support in the face of high debt levels, and slow productivity growth.
“The war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East—such long-term situations have accustomed investors, the market, and the economy to a lack of stability,” Mariusz Zielonka, an economic expert from the Confederation Lewiatan, told eNewsroom.pl. “In fact, the markets have already heavily discounted, in economic terms, what is happening globally. Currently, significant movements—whether in product or commodity prices—will only occur in the event of a major escalation of conflicts, which mainly impact macroeconomic events. Another important factor will be the presidential elections in the United States—and essentially the outcome of these elections. If the Republicans win, market uncertainty may increase. This makes it difficult to predict how the end of the current year will unfold,” analyzes Zielonka.
