International advisory agency Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation in the Warsaw office market in 2023. The past 12 months have brought the lowest supply value in 25 years. This is due, among other things, to the temporary withdrawal of some properties from the market due to planned modernisation actions. On the other hand, the demand for offices, measured by the number of concluded transactions, was almost 18% higher than in the record-breaking 2019. At the same time, tenants must expect the continuation of pressure to increase rental rates and a consistent decrease in available office space in Warsaw.
SUPPLY: OFFICE RESOURCES UNCHANGE SINCE 2022 YEAR
According to Cushman & Wakefield, the total office space resources in Warsaw in 2023 amounted to 6.23 million square meters and increased by almost 61,000 square meters in six office buildings.
“We are currently dealing with the lowest annual supply value in nearly 25 years, with an average for this period being about 250,000 square meters. Despite the commissioning of new investments, the office space resources in Warsaw have not changed compared to 2022,” comments Jan Szulborski, Business Development & Insight Manager at Cushman & Wakefield.
This is primarily due to the exclusion of buildings, which will change function or are no longer offered on the market due to a planned thorough modernisation.
As Szulborski adds, “The modernisation and conversion of buildings are necessary, among other things, to adapt them to the increasingly high ESG standards.”
DEMAND: LESS LEASED AREA AT HIGHER TRANSACTION VOLUME
The activities of office tenants in 2023 amounted to less than 750 000 square meters, 13% less than for the corresponding period in the previous year and slightly higher than the average transaction activity over the last five years. Nonetheless, the number of transactions on the Warsaw office market is around 18% higher than in the record-breaking year of 2019 in terms of the amount of leased space and only 5% less compared to the corresponding period in 2022.
In 2023, the demand structure was dominated by relocations, accounting for approximately 53% of all transactions concluded. Renegotiations and expansions were responsible for 43% and 4% of all transactions concluded.
RENT RATES: LOCATION, BUILDING QUALITY, AND OCCUPANCY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE RENT RATE INCREASES
In 2023, the rates for the best office spaces in Warsaw were 22.00-26.00 EUR/ square meter/ month in the city centre and 13.50-16.50 EUR/ square meter/ month in locations outside central areas and remained unchanged compared to the end of 2022.
“In 2024, we will see the continuation of pressure on rent rate increases, especially for projects under construction. Moreover, the impact of rent adjustments in 2024 will still be noticeable and is forecasted to be around 4-5% for agreements concluded in euros. While the adjustment applies to a large majority of existing leases, the strategy of landlords regarding new lease agreements will differ depending on the parameters adopted for the managed portfolio,” comments Grzegorz Dyląg, Partner and Head of Asset Services Business Space at Cushman & Wakefield.
VACANCY RATES: LESS AVAILABLE OFFICES
The vacancy rate in the Warsaw office market since the start of 2022 has been on a downward trend, and the limited developer activity will favour further compression of available office space in 2024. The availability of office space at the end of 2023 was nearly 647,000 square meters, a decrease of nearly 80,000 square meters compared to the corresponding period in 2022. The vacancy rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 stood at 10.4%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year on year and 0.2 points quarter on quarter.
“We assume that the pace of space absorption in 2024 will remain at a lower level than in previous years, among other things due to the issue of office space optimisation by tenants, which in the long term will have a negative impact,“ summarises Joanna Blumert, Head of Occupier Services at Cushman & Wakefield.
