The recent weeks have shown us that the conflict in Israel, despite its humanitarian tragedy, may not be the most important military event in the Middle East this year. Oil prices have already begun to rise.
Americans’ Budgets
On Friday, we learnt about the changes in income and expenditure across the ocean. It appears that the gigantic debt of Americans is only increasing. Their expenses increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis in December, while their income rose by 0.3%. Considering the increasing gap, the deferment of interest rate cuts could be a serious problem. In the case of the USA, the credit card data are always shocking, especially in comparison to our country. It’s worth remembering that credit card debt in Poland affects approximately 15% of the population, according to various estimates. In the USA, this figure stands at 61% according to some data. On the other hand, a decrease in interest rates won’t have as much impact as in Poland, since mortgage loans are based on a fixed interest rate. The data was received by the market as good for the dollar. Higher spending is at least beneficial to the economy in the short term.
Oil Price Increases
Increases are beginning again in oil prices. When the situation is unclear with this commodity, it’s always worth looking at the Middle East. It turns out that a drone used by Iran-supported militias killed 3 American soldiers in Jordan. Attacks are also occurring on tankers in the Red Sea, which is a precursor to the Suez Canal. Considering these events, an increase of 4 dollars per barrel in the last few days shouldn’t be surprising. Even if we’re talking about just 4 dollars. If there’s a decisive response from the Americans, those interested in cheap fuel will miss today’s prices.
Bitcoin ETF Advertisements Kick Off
From today, Google is changing the rules regarding cryptocurrency advertisements. This is significant, as expectations for the launch of an investment fund placing in bitcoin were clearly higher than what has been happening so far. However, the bitcoin ETF is being compared to various unrealized bubbles by the malicious. From our local perspective, sometimes the example of Cyberpunk is mentioned, which heated investors’ expectations so much that it almost had to end in their disappointment and drops. Here, on the back of the wave of expectations, the course bounced off the peaks above 48,000 dollars and after a few moves, is stabilizing around 42,000 dollars. Many analysts speculate that advertisements on Google could significantly increase interest in this instrument.
There are no important macroeconomic data in the calendar for today.
Maciej Przygórzewski – Chief Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat.pl.
