The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) has maintained interest rates at their current level. The decision was in line with expectations. Today, a press conference was held by Adam Glapiński, which has for some time been a more important event than the decision on interest rates itself. In this address, the market is seeking answers to the fundamental question: when will the RPP begin to cut interest rates?
Globally, monetary easing cycles are being continued. Interest rates are being lowered in the USA, the Eurozone and in the Czech Republic. The disparity in interest rates between Poland and developed countries is steadily increasing. However, the RPP maintains interest rates at an unchanged level.
I believe that the election of Donald Trump as president will have a negligible impact on future RPP decisions. We focus on our economy, where macroeconomic data, including from the labor market, are disappointingly negative. We therefore anticipate that the opportunity for the first cuts will arise in the second quarter of 2025. By then we will know the inflation readings from the first few months of the year as well as March’s inflation projection. It seems that these forecasts will clearly indicate that the peak of inflation from the beginning of the year has passed, without the risk of further increase, and the commencement of a trend towards the inflation target in 2026.
Bartosz Wałecki, Analyst, Trader Michael / Ström Dom Maklerski
Source: https://managerplus.pl/wygrana-trumpa-bedzie-miala-znikomy-wplyw-na-przyszle-decyzje-rpp-75759
