Global tourism is returning to pre-pandemic levels, but the industry is facing new challenges. Travelers increasingly organize their own trips, while climate change affects the popularity of specific holiday destinations. At the same time, rising prices and fears of economic slowdown cast a shadow on the future leaders of the market such as Airbnb and TUI.
Every long, warm weekend means a period of increased trips for Poles. Tourism in our country returned to pre-pandemic levels last year, and globally the same is happening now. According to the World Tourism Organization, world tourist traffic in 2023 was 11% lower than in 2019. However, at the end of the first quarter of this year, this difference was only 3%.
Although statistics are returning to previous levels, the tourism business has undergone a radical transformation. Travelers are increasingly acting as their own travel agents, planning trips and booking accommodation themselves. The range of available travel options is expanding, and prices are becoming more transparent and easier to compare. At the same time, tourism is becoming increasingly dependent on weather conditions, which is related to climate change. Examples include present fires in Greece. New trends, such as “coolcations”, vacations in cooler regions (such as Scandinavia) to escape summer heat, are gaining popularity. Data from booking platforms such as Airbnb shows that the time between booking and stay is decreasing, meaning that tourists plan their trips later, especially for longer vacations.
Europe remains the most popular travel destination in the world, with forecasts indicating that tourists will spend a record 800 billion euros on our continent this year. This is 37% more than before the pandemic, even though the number of tourists will only increase by 6% than in 2019. This is due to a significant increase in service prices, caused by inflation and rising demand. The main driver of tourism growth in Europe remains tourists from the U.S.A. Even though countries like Poland are gaining popularity, 72% of tourism expenditures in Europe are concentrated in the western part of the continent. On the other hand, in many places in Europe, the number of tourists is already too high, pushing the search for new attractive destinations.
Globally, there are mixed feelings in the tourism industry, due to the risk of economic slowdown. Recently, Airbnb shares fell by 14% after announcing second-quarter financial results, which turned out to be lower than market expectations. The company’s revenues increased by 11% year on year, but net profit fell by 15% compared to the same period last year. Airbnb, with over 8 million offers on its platform, removed 200,000 of them that did not meet new quality requirements. The company warns of a possible slowdown in demand in the U.S.A and increasingly late vacation planning, which can also negatively affect future revenues.
Traditional tourism companies such as German TUI also have to face challenges. Since reaching its peak in 1999, TUI shares lost 97% of their value and significantly lag behind the wider market; dropping by 22% in 2024, despite nearly a 5% increase over the last week. Currently, the stock price is only 20% higher than the record low level. The company presented its quarterly results according to which revenues were a record 5.8 billion euros, which is 9% more than a year earlier. The company reduced its debt by over 42 million euros but still owes 2.1 billion euros. Reservations for this summer have increased by 6% compared to last year, and the average price of selling services is 3% higher than a year ago. TUI predicts that revenues will increase by 10% throughout 2024.
Paweł Majtkowski, eToro analyst in Poland.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/turystyka-na-fali-wzrostowej-ale-nie-bez-problemow-30107
