According to the report “At a Glance: Investment Market in Poland in Q3 2024” by BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, transactions worth over €2.68 billion were completed between January and September 2024. This marks an increase of nearly 57% compared to the same period last year. The office sector remains the market leader.
Major Transactions of 2024
Since the beginning of the year, office assets have led the domestic investment volume, holding a 37% share. Between January and September, 31 transactions were concluded in this segment, with a total value exceeding €990 million — more than 3.5 times the volume recorded during the same period last year.
In Q3 2024, several key transactions were recorded. Stena Real Estate acquired the Studio B office building in Warsaw (18,000 sq m) from Skanska for over €86.3 million, the largest office transaction in this period. Additionally, Sona Asset Management purchased a 49% stake in the CPI (Vulcanion) office portfolio from CPI Group, which encompasses 315,000 sq m of office space.
The second most active segment was the warehouse and logistics sector, comprising 28% of the investment market. Transactions in this sector reached over €751 million since January, with the last quarter accounting for 59% of this volume. American investors were particularly active, investing over €255 million (57% of the quarterly volume) in this asset class. The largest transaction in this period was Greykite’s acquisition of the Diamond Business Parks portfolio (141,000 sq m of industrial and logistics space) from White Star.
Residential rental assets also drew significant interest, with transactions amounting to nearly €240 million.
Stabilization and Positive Outlook
Signs of stabilization are slowly emerging in global financial markets. On a quarterly basis, capitalization rates for Poland’s prime commercial real estate assets remained unchanged, with a potential decline in selected asset classes in the coming quarters.
Compared to Polish government bonds, commercial real estate is becoming increasingly attractive. However, existing risks still hinder the influx of more international capital. Poland continues to compete with Western European countries in terms of risk-adjusted returns. Key risk factors — such as military and trade conflicts, migration, and fiscal crises — remain common across the continent.
“Thanks to the stabilization of capitalization rates and rising rental rates, current investors can expect better overall returns. Recently, we’ve also observed greater activity in portfolio transactions, indicating that investors see strategic opportunities for optimization and value growth. This takes into account positive macroeconomic forecasts and the planned expenditure from the National Recovery Plan in 2025 and 2026,” highlights Karolina Wojciechowska, Deputy Director, Capital Markets Department at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Interest Rate Cuts Strengthen the Market
The European Central Bank’s recent interest rate cuts give hope to the investment market, suggesting that we are entering a new phase of the economic cycle. Forecasts indicate that by the end of the year, the deposit rate in Europe should drop to around 2%. However, long-term expectations of rates falling below this level are slim, meaning the recovery of transaction volumes will be a slow process requiring adaptation to the new monetary policy standard.
“Nevertheless, the total value of transactions concluded this year will be over 65% higher than in 2023 and is likely to exceed €3.5 billion. Additionally, the institutional rental sector (PRS) is expected to achieve a record volume of transactions, creating new investment opportunities alongside other alternative asset classes. This development will deepen the market and enhance resilience to economic fluctuations,” emphasizes Mateusz Skubiszewski, Senior Director, Head of Capital Markets Department at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
