The hidden costs associated with the negative impact of the global food system on the environment and public health amount to approximately 15 billion dollars annually – as revealed in a recent report by the Food System Economic Commission (FSEC). The report indicates that current models of food production and distribution contribute to climate change, loss of biodiversity, social inequality, and the increasing prevalence of lifestyle diseases. It is predicted that due to population growth, these models will collapse within the next few decades. According to the UN, by 2050 the Earth’s population will reach an estimated 10 billion, and forecasts from the World Resources Institute suggest that this will create a 56% gap in food production. To feed the planet – and limit the impact on climate – a transition to more sustainable food systems and innovative food production methods will be necessary.
“We are at a critical juncture and if our approach to food production does not change in the near future, natural resources will simply run out. According to UN estimates, the population will increase to about 10 billion people and to feed them, we will need a more sustainable production because producing 1 kg of meat consumes about 100 times more natural resources than plant-based food. This does not mean that we will all start drinking only plant-based milk, but there needs to be some evolution to simply feed our planet,” says Damian Bartkowiak, Director of the Food & Water Division for the Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic markets at Alfa Laval, a company providing solutions for food producers among others.
The global population is about 8.2 billion, of which over 733 million – an average of every 11th person in the world – experience hunger, and approximately 2.3 billion struggle with moderate or severe food insecurity (FAO, “State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World” 2023).Researchers and experts suggest that these problems are exacerbated when simultaneously more and more people suffer from overweight and obesity, and only in the EU scale there are about a million deaths annually associated with an unhealthy diet. Society, especially Western, consumes too much meat, too few vegetables, wastes too much food, and currently used farming methods pollute the environment and contribute to climate change. It is estimated that about half of the Earth’s land area is used for crops, and farming is the main cause of deforestation and loss of biodiversity on Earth. It also accounts for about 1/3 of global greenhouse gas emissions – methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide – which drive climate change.
All of this means that both dietary habits and the ineffective global food system require profound, structural changes. Especially that according to UN forecasts, the number of people on the planet will grow in the next 50-60 years, peaking at 10.3 billion in the mid-21st century. This will entail a sharp increase in food demand. According to analysts from the World Resources Institute (“How to Sustainably Feed 10 Billion People by 2050”), with the same economic growth rate, food production will need to increase by 56 percent to ensure adequate food. This will cause further agricultural expansion, conversion of more forest areas into agricultural land and increased emissions. Wealthier societies consume more and more animal-derived food, which production requires large amounts of natural resources. It is estimated that the production of 1 kg of beef generates the emission of about 10 kg of greenhouse gases, and livestock accounts for about half of global methane emissions – a gas whose greenhouse potential is 28 times higher than carbon dioxide. Thus, it is meat production that is one of the main drivers of climate change.
Researchers point out that in this context, it is necessary to redirect the global food system towards a more sustainable model, with benefits for health and the environment. It is necessary, among other things, to reduce the consumption of meat and dairy products in favour of promoting a healthier, plant-based diet, which would result in decreased emissions.
“This is already slowly happening. Consumer attitudes are changing, our approach to diet is changing, awareness is much greater. On the other hand, investor awareness is also growing, who are increasingly keen to invest in modern food production methods. In addition, many new regulations are coming into effect which are somewhat enforcing this changed approach, among other things for the sake of environmental protection,” says Damian Bartkowiak.
According to forecasts by the World Resources Institute if current trends continue, meat consumption (beef, lamb and goat) will increase by 88% from 2010 to 2050. Beef, the most commonly consumed meat, however, requires large resources and emits 20 times more greenhouse gases per 1 g of edible protein than plant proteins such as beans, peas and lentils.
A series of studies show that consumers are increasingly aware of these environmental and health consequences. According to last year’s ProVeg report “Growing Appetite: A Comprehensive Analysis of Europeans’ Attitudes towards Plant-Based Food”, developed in cooperation with the University of Copenhagen and the University of Ghent, already 51% of meat-eaters in Europe actively reduce its consumption (up from 46% in 2021). The main reasons for this are health (47%), environmental concerns (29%) and animal welfare (26%).
“In supermarkets today we see many products with increased protein content, this is a very strong trend. We have, among others, high-protein milk, high-protein bars, I even recently noticed breakfast cereals with an extra protein content. This shows that there is a lot more awareness, especially among young people who want to consume products with more of this protein,” says the Director of Food & Water in Alfa Laval. “But we need to get this protein from somewhere. So far we have mainly obtained it from whey, but the question is how long we will be able to use it for this purpose. Therefore, producers should consider alternative sources. A popular alternative to animal-derived proteins are undoubtedly plant-derived proteins, obtained from beans or peas. Many producers are now considering this as an alternative, for example, to the production of plant milk instead of cow’s milk. Another alternative and increasingly popular source of protein is extracting it from insects. This market is rapidly developing and it is estimated that by 2030 it will be worth about $12 billion.”
Edible insects – such as crickets or mealworm beetles – have a very high content of easily digestible protein (up to 60 percent), and are also a source of valuable vitamins, fibre and unsaturated fatty acids. Importantly, insect farming consumes several times less water to produce 1 g of protein compared to cattle, pigs and poultry farming. It also requires less land, as insects can be farmed vertically, feeding them plant waste, which is not suitable for feeding cattle, thus reducing food waste. Since 2021, when the European Union allowed the consumption by humans of mealworm beetle larvae, the first such food products have appeared on the market.
“Another alternative to traditional meat could also be cell-based meat, produced in a laboratory. Experts estimate that this market will be worth about 30 to 40 billion dollars by 2030, so this future awaits us soon,” says Damian Bartkowiak. “In the near future, the main engine will still be the standard production of meat or milk as we know it. We should not expect a great revolution here, but there will undoubtedly be some evolution. We can imagine that in some time everyone will have a 3D printer at home and will be able to print their own food for their own needs. Such things are already happening – in Germany and the Netherlands, restaurants have already opened where entire sheets of ready-made food are sold, constituting a full-fledged meal.”
