The year 2023 was good for the Polish stock market, as well as for global exchanges. Investors changed their attitude, which accompanied them in the previous year, thereby increasing their appetite for risk. Certainly, sentiment improved due to the global trend of disinflation, which intensified speculation about the imminent start of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
The Polish stock exchange was additionally supported by domestic events. The new political configuration surely changes how Poland is perceived on the international stage. The current coalition government is pro-European Union. Foreign entities can see this and will be more willing to invest capital in Poland. Also, receiving funds from the Just Transition Fund seems to be much more realistic now.
However, this process will be spread over time, as it will require the implementation of “milestones” that the Union sets as necessary conditions. The Polish zloty has also gained, and all depreciation caused by the pandemic and later by the war in Ukraine has been “erased”. The political change should provide a backdrop for the Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW) in 2024 and offer a kind of fundamental support.
Additionally, the Polish economy has probably already passed the trough of the economic cycle and will grow at a rate above 2.5% in the next 12 months, according to forecasts. This factor will be important for the valuation of companies listed on Książęca Street.
Let’s also remember that Poland is becoming more and more a beneficiary of nearshoring. This trend was accelerated during the pandemic period. This means that an increasing number of companies are moving production closer to the final place of product creation. This will benefit our economy and the stock market.
Łukasz Zembik Oanda TMS Brokers.
