The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) has maintained interest rates at the current level. The decision was in line with expectations. Today, a press conference was held by Adam Glapiński, which for some time has been a more important event than the decision on interest rates itself. In this statement, the market is looking for an answer to the basic question, i.e. when will the RPP start cutting interest rates.
Globally, monetary policy easing cycles are gaining momentum. In September, the Federal Reserve (Fed) made its first rate cut, immediately moving it by 50 basis points (pb). A total cut of 100 pb by the end of the year is practically a forgone conclusion in such a case. We also expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to make another cut in October. The disparity in interest rates between Poland and developed countries is gradually increasing. However, the RPP keeps interest rates at an unchanged level.
We believe that the space for the first cuts will appear in the second quarter of 2025. We will then have inflation readings from the first months of the year and a March inflation projection. It seems that these data unequivocally point to inflation stabilization without the risk of its further growth. This is also one of the conditions indicated by Adam Glapiński that must be met before starting the cuts.
Bartosz Wałecki, Analyst Michael / Ström Brokerage House
Source: https://managerplus.pl/przestrzen-na-pierwsze-obnizki-w-ii-kwartale-2025-r-90886
