The Real Estate Market Mood Index (INPON) has recorded another decline this year, standing at 51.9 points and balancing on the edge of optimism. The last time a lower result was recorded was in 2022. “Today’s market conditions involve particularly difficult choices. This applies to both buyers and sellers,” comments Rafał Bieńkowski from Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
The mood index for the real estate market (INPON) stood at precisely 51.96 points in the third quarter. This is 0.7 points less than in the second quarter and 3.6 points less than in the first quarter. In the opinions of brokers, which form the basis of the barometer prepared by the classified portal Nieruchomosci-online.pl, the key decision was that of postponing the #naStart credit program.
“This time, the decline in our index was not large, but the indicator is still decreasing. In the third quarter, some buyers and sellers were disoriented. Waiting for specific government decisions, they held back from transactions, which partly caused stagnation. The market today involves particularly difficult choices. This applies to both buyers and sellers,” says Rafał Bieńkowski from Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
The mood barometer on the real estate market last reached a lower score in 2022. The market was overshadowed by the Ukraine war outbreak, which at times caused the index to plummet to 46 points (below the optimism threshold of 50 “hopes”). Moods significantly improved in 2023, but a downward trend has been apparent for several quarters.
As Bogusław Półtorak, Professor at the Wrocław University of Economics highlights, the main problems of the real estate market are ongoing inflation and expensive loans, which are a consequence of still some of the highest interest rates in Europe.
“While the European Central Bank, the Fed, and other central banks have largely dealt with inflation and entered a phase of lowering rates, in Poland we’re repaying inflationary debt caused by overly expansionary monetary policy in 2020-2021 and the price bubble caused by negative real interest rates. At that time, investment purchases dominated to protect against inflation, alongside purchases for own use. Today, some of this real estate is slowly returning to the sales market with attempts to realize inflation premiums, hence the great reluctance on the part of sellers to make larger price reductions. However, certain reductions in the secondary market are becoming a fact if the sale is to be real,” he says.
“The primary market, after rebuilding supply, is currently a buyer’s market. For this reason, one should not expect a rapid change in the situation in the coming quarters. Even if the government’s program of financial support for purchases comes into effect, it will be introduced under different conditions than Safe Loan 2%, with much greater restrictions,” believes Bogusław Półtorak.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/nastroje-na-rynku-nieruchomosci-slabna-32713
