The situation in the real estate market in September did not undergo any abrupt changes, with relatively little interest in purchasing despite stabilization of apartment prices. The current situation is undoubtedly affected by changes around the 0% Credit programme, this time caused by flooding. At the same time, a slowdown in the rental market can also be observed. September also brought new government proposals aiming to neutralize problems in the real estate market, although their implementation remains uncertain.
Flooding and the real estate market
September brought serious flood effects in southwestern Poland. The way this natural disaster will impact the real estate market is still uncertain. However, signals about possible legislative changes exist. Paulina Hennig-Kloska, the Minister of Climate and Environment, announced stricter regulations banning building on flood-prone areas. These are not the only proposed legal changes — the Left party proposes introducing a tax on vacant premises to raise funds for building affordable municipal apartments. This tax should motivate owners to rent out empty premises, increasing the availability of apartments. The funds from the tax would go to the Subsidy Fund, which supports communal construction. The Left’s idea is an alternative to the 0% Credit — although the future of the program remains uncertain. Deputy Minister of Development and Technology, Jacek Tomczak, announced that funds from the ‘Start-Up’ credit planned for 2024, amounting to 500 million PLN, will be used for housing assistance for the flood victims. Despite the minister’s promises, more and more voices doubt the future of the 0% Credit.
Sales still in stagnation
The lack of reliable information about the 0% Credit has resulted in regression in the sales market, confirmed by Homfi real estate agency data confirming the stagnation. In September 2024, the number of people interested in purchasing property fell by 11.76% compared to September 2023 and by 13.38% compared to August 2024. At the same time, apartment prices have stabilized at a level similar to the previous month. On real estate websites such as OLX and Otodom, a historical record was set at the end of September. There were 94,280 apartment sales offers available – data only for the seven largest Polish real estate markets (Warsaw, Krakow, Wroclaw, Lodz, Gdansk, Poznan, and Katowice). That’s 64.2% more than a year ago. The numbers are confirmed in Homfi statistics. Our offer in September 2024 included 1,604 properties for sale — 47.97% more than a year ago. The largest increase is visible in Lodz — compared to August, the number of sales offers increased by 11.76%, and in Gdansk, where this indicator increased by 3.78%. A decrease in sales interest is also visible in Krakow — the number of offers increased by 3.64% in the popular segment and by 8.72% in the premium real estate segment. Thus, Homfi’s buyer demand indicator, which measures the number of people interested in buying a house or apartment per one property available in Homfi’s offer, fell by 15.49% in both monthly and annual terms.
The data published in September by GUS (Main Statistical Office) confirm the observed trends. According to GUS, purchasing an apartment in cities is becoming increasingly difficult. The median wage in March 2024 was PLN 6550 gross, significantly lower than the average wage. High apartment prices in cities, especially in Krakow and Warsaw, make the difference between earnings and real estate prices larger, making it more difficult to save for an apartment. In smaller cities, the situation is more favorable, because the difference between earnings and apartment prices is smaller, making it easier to save for a property.
“The current situation in the real estate market does not indicate an impending decrease in offer prices, especially in the face of ongoing turmoil around the 0% Credit and anticipated legislative changes. However, we might assume that sellers will be more willing to negotiate prices due to the decline in buying interest,” observes Maciej Zięba, Operational Director of Homfi.
Slowdown in Rental Market
A decline is obvious in the rental market in September 2024 — the number of people interested in renting fell by 43.12% compared to August, and by 61.08% compared to July. The decreased interest in renting is undoubtedly due to the end of summer holidays, as the largest peak in interest in renting apartments falls in the summer months when students search for accommodation in academic centers. After that, stagnation can be observed in the autumn and winter months in this real estate market segment. The largest decline is visible in Poznan (-60.58%) and Lodz (-53.10%), the smallest — in Warsaw (-29.66%) and Krakow (-37.43%).
A change in consumer needs in the Polish rental market can also be observed. Currently, one-room and two-room apartments dominate, but there is a lack of larger, four-room premises, which are becoming increasingly sought after. Tenants, whose number is growing compared to people interested in buying, are not only young people and single households, but also couples, families with children and larger families, so the market offer will have to adapt to the changing structure of tenants. Houses for rent are also becoming more popular, which could be an attractive alternative to large apartments, although they are more expensive and require more commitment to property maintenance.
At the same time, the current stagnation in the real estate sales market can indicate that over time the multi-room apartment and house rental market may develop.
On the other hand, long-term changes in the attitude towards renting can be observed, caused by the entry into the market of the so-called generation Z. People up to 30 years old look for smaller apartments, preferring mobility and flexibility, and possession is not their main goal. Their priorities are modern technologies, good public transport and the possibility of remote work. The costs of loans and the lack of financial stability discourage them from buying, hence many representatives of this generation choose to rent. The above data confirms that the rental market is becoming more important — does this mean that the Polish real estate market is heading towards the West?
Source: https://managerplus.pl/stabilizacja-cen-spadek-zainteresowania-jak-powodz-i-niepewnosc-wokol-kredytu-0-wplywaja-na-rynek-nieruchomosci-70641
