The international advisory agency Cushman & Wakefield has summarized the situation in the commercial real estate sector in Poland. The third quarter brought a continuation of high developer activity, and new openings were completely dominated by retail parks. This is the first such quarter in the development of the Polish market when one format completely dominated new supply. The upbeat mood in the commercial real estate segment is also accompanied by a growing number of brand debuts, as well as positive results recorded on the retail sales side, shopping center visitation, and their turnover.
SUPPLY: 102,000 sqm of open retail space in the third quarter
The third quarter in the commercial real estate sector was marked by high developer activity and brought 102,000 sqm of modern retail space delivered to the market. All new openings concerned retail park format, which was created in both large agglomerations and cities up to 50,000 inhabitants. Thus, the total resources of modern retail space in Poland currently reach about 16.6 million sqm, and according to forecasts, the entire year 2024 will close with a result of about 460,000 sqm of new supply, comments Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, Head of Research at Cushman & Wakefield.
The largest objects are BIG Gorzów and BIG Ostróda retail parks, both with an area of about 25,000 sqm GLA. At the same time, San Park Piaseczno also debuted on the market, supplying the Mysiadło market with approximately 18,500 sqm, which, together with Castorama, OBI, Biedronka and Selgros buildings (built earlier), creates a complex exceeding 45,000 sqm. In addition, expansions of three retail parks in Radomsko, Skarżysko-Kamienna and Syców contributed to an increase in supply by 5,700 sqm.
Currently, 350,000 sqm is under construction, and developers are building 44 retail properties, of which 26 are entirely new investments. In turn, 14 projects will be expansions, and 4 will be reconstructions of already existing buildings. Analyzing future supply in terms of location, it can be noticed that most of the area is being built in the Śląskie and Mazowieckie voivodships, where 55,000 sqm and 54,000 sqm respectively are being built. Moreover, 37% of the area under construction is located in cities and towns with less than 50,000 inhabitants, and 43% in the largest agglomerations with over 400,000 inhabitants, says Ewelina Staruch, Senior Analyst at Cushman & Wakefield.
DEMAND: as many as ten new brands on the Polish market
The third quarter bore fruit with the debut of ten brands planning further development in our country, and they were: Arket, Bulgari, Carpatree, Dior Fashion, Dreame, GAP, Greek House, Rebernia, TAG Heuer and Tissot. Seven of them chose Warsaw to open their first store in Poland.
RETAIL SALES: The third quarter is still positive
The dynamics of retail sales in the third quarter of 2024 continued the good run and were positive – according to the latest data published by GUS, it stood at 4.4% year on year in July and 2.6% year on year in August. For comparison, the third quarter of the previous year recorded declines of -4.0% year on year in July and -2.7% year on year in August. Examining retail sales at constant prices in August 2024, it can be noticed that the highest growth compared to August of the previous year occurred in the category “Motor vehicles, motorcycles and their parts” and the “Other” group, which recorded an increase of 15.7% and 13.9% year on year, respectively. The situation in the group of products “Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopedic equipment”, which achieved positive dynamics at the level of 11.2% year on year, also looked positive, adds Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz.
Year-on-year declines occurred in four categories. The worst result was recorded for “Textiles, clothing and footwear” (-13.6% year on year), “Furniture, RTV and AGD (-5.3% year on year), “Press and books” (-1.9% year on year) and “Food, beverages and tobacco products” (-0.4% year on year).
Consumer sentiment indicators are better than a year ago, which is reflected in higher spending by society. According to the latest reading from July, the current value of BWUK is higher by 10.9 pp compared to July 2023, adds Ewelina Staruch.
The share of e-commerce in retail sales in August was 8.0%, which represents a slight increase of 0.7 pp year on year. The commercial categories with the highest share of e-commerce are multimedia (including press, books, sales in specialized stores), the fashion sector, and furniture, RTV and AGD.
VISITATION AND TURNOVER: Stabilization of the number of customers and their expenditures in shopping centers
The visitation in shopping centers in the period July – August 2024 averaged about 450,000 customers per one object. This result is similar to previous years.
Compared to 2023, a slight 1% year-on-year decline in visitor numbers was observed, but when comparing this result with 2022, a 4% increase was seen. The best indicators of year-on-year visitation changes were recorded by the largest shopping centers with a rental area exceeding 60,000 sqm. Preliminary results for September, however, show a few percent decline in year-on-year visitation, which may result from exceptionally good weather and the resulting lower propensity to visit shopping centers and purchase fall collections, explains Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz.
In the period July – August 2024, the average turnover of shopping center tenants exceeded 1100 PLN net per sqm, and in the entire third quarter were nominally on average higher by 4% compared to 2023. However, after taking into account inflation, the real average turnover corresponds to last year’s levels. The highest growth was recorded in the case of the smallest shopping centers – a nominal average increase of 5%, which translates into a real increase in turnover of about 1%.
RENTS: Year-on-year increases in rents in all three market segments
The analysis of rents for the best “prime” properties has shown their systematic growth. Comparing the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2023, it can be noticed that in the case of shopping centers, this growth was 19% year on year, and the average level of rent reached 155 EUR/sqm/month. In the case of premises located on shopping streets, a 19% increase in rents was also observed. A slightly higher year-on-year increase was noted for retail parks, where rates grew on average by 23% year on year, comments Michał Masztakowski, Head of Retail Agency Poland at Cushman & Wakefield.
VACANCIES: Poznań and Wrocław with the highest indicator of unrented space
The study covered the eight largest agglomerations in Poland and showed that the vacancy rate as of the third quarter of 2024 was 3.2%. Last year it was slightly higher 3.6%. Poznań remains at the unenviable forefront in terms of the level of vacancies, which in this city was 4.6%. Wrocław, on the other hand, recorded a rate of 4.0%. The least available space for rent is in Łódź, only 1.1%.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/wzrosty-sprzedazy-i-stabilna-odwiedzalnosc-pozytywne-wyniki-centrow-handlowych-42648
