The outcome of stimulating demand through the “Safe Credit 2%” initiative has resulted in a sustained interest in purchasing apartments. Even after the program’s conclusion, credit activity remains relatively high, a fact that may be surprising. The eagerly anticipated new subsidy project under the “Start Housing” premise only enhances demand further. The market situation encourages developers to take action, which is evident in the latest data from the Central Statistical Office. As a result, in February, there was a significant increase in developer activity. The initiated constructions will provide over 14,000 new apartments, the best result since June 2022. Ula Olczak, an expert from Otodom Analytics, comments on this.
In February, over 20,000 new constructions were recorded in total. Of these, 14.2 thousand residential units were thanks to developers. This figure is 115% higher than a year ago. However, attention should be drawn to the fact that this might also result from a low base – in the comparable period in 2023, developers started building just over 6.5 thousand apartments. Nevertheless, the number of constructions initiated in February this year exceeds even the time when the property market was undergoing a peak of construction boom, such as in February 2021, for example. The month-on-month increase was almost 18%. Not only developers are more active in the market. Individual investors who started building nearly 5.9 thousand apartments are also working vigorously, which is an increase of approximately 49% compared to the previous year.
Months of Growth
The total number of apartments completed exceeded 15 thousand again, of which two thirds (9.8 thousand) were supplied by developers. This is considerably more than in the previous month. Consequently, the developer’s market saw 42% more apartments than last year and 6% more compared to the previous month.
The number of building permits granted to developers remains stable, at about 15 thousand per month. The February figure is 42% higher than the year before, even though it is lower than in 2022 and 2021. The monthly increase was just under 6%. Therefore, in summary, in February, a total of 21.4 thousand building permits were issued, of which developers received 15.5 thousand.
By aggregating CSO data over three-month periods, it is clear how the market is currently behaving. The number of constructions started has doubled over the year. If this trend continues, then the number of new developer investments will reach a record high.
What Does the Immediate Future Hold?
The start of the year is a good time for developers not only because of the commencement of housing projects or obtaining building permits. It appears that the market is entering a period of relative stabilization. Even after the Safe Credit 2% program has ended, there are still people willing to buy apartments. Data from Otodom Analytics shows more than 4.5 thousand apartments were sold on the seven largest markets in Poland, 9% more than in January, and 17% more than a year earlier. Furthermore, in most cities, the housing offer is replenishing, as seen in the introduction of new apartments to the offer – in February, there were 4.7 thousand of them. Although this is not the highest number in the last 12 months, we can expect a return to a certain balance and a steady increase in supply. Unfortunately, we should not expect a decrease in the price per square meter of apartments in the developer’s standard in the near future.
