Maciej Przygórzewski, the main currency analyst at Currency One, the operator of InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat
Crude oil is increasing once again following a drop in reserves in the USA. Industrial production data from Europe does not inspire optimism, while data from the UK is as expected.
Crude oil seeks new highs
Crude oil prices are on the rise once again. Direct impulse for the current growth came from yesterday’s data from the US. Despite positive expectations, a clear decrease in oil reserves was observed in the changes in fuel reserves data. Fuel reserves also dropped significantly. These numbers were so vital that the price of a barrel jumped up by 1.5 dollars. It is important to take into account that beyond a brief downswing, the barrel prices in the past month have moved within a corridor between 82 and 84 dollars. The recent increases let the oil price reach the highs from November. The issue is that, from the technical analysis perspective, this upward breakout from the channel may be the beginning of an unfavourable movement for our portfolios.
Weaker data from the eurozone
Yesterday, we learned about the industrial production readings from several European countries, but the overall data for the eurozone was probably the most important. Industrial production falls by as much as 6.7% in a year. The markets were expecting a reduction, but of only 2.9%, hence we have a negative surprise. Additional data was published from Hungary and Romania, with industrial production also shrinking in both countries, by 3.6% and 3.4% respectively. This is a negative sign for future prospects in Europe. However, the euro zone had better results last month, but this came after three preceding months showing similar declines. That is likely why investors did not react much to these figures.
Data from the UK holds no surprises
Wednesday also brought data from the UK. We learned about the GDP figures for January, the industrial production and the trade balance. All these data, however, were either in line or almost in line with the expectations. As a result, we did not observe further changes in the rate of Pound Sterling. Yesterday, we saw an approach to the psychological bar of 5 PLN due to the strengthening of the Polish currency, something we last observed with the GBP rate in November and December.
Maciej Przygórzewski – Main Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat.pl
