October Inflation in Poland at 4.1%: What It Means for Future Rate Decisions

We have received the final October reading of Polish inflation today. It stands at 4.1 percent year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than predicted and 0.2 percentage points lower than the final September reading.

This kind of figure could theoretically encourage the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to consider starting the cycle of cuts in interest rates more quickly, especially in light of such moves being made by the majority of the most important central banks; however, the final readings of this year are likely not going to be that influential on this decision.

All due to the fact that by the end of the year, anti-inflationary shields for most households will expire. That will surely raise the first inflation readings of 2025, and only on their basis will the NBP make decisions regarding the further levels of interest rates in Poland.

Author: Piotr Bawolski, CFA, Director for Strategic Clients Michael / Ström Brokerage House