November 1: Slightly Cheaper Fuel Expected as Polish Zloty and Oil Market Stabilize

This year, on November 1, we may have to pay slightly less for gas at gas stations than the previous year. This is due to the current situation in the oil market and the strength of the Polish zloty. Although not long ago, at some stations in Poland, you could fill up around the level of PLN 5.50-5.70 per liter of 95 petrol, it is likely that prices will stabilize closer to 6 PLN. In large cities, especially in the capital, prices are often 20 or even 30 gr higher than the country’s average. An equivalent situation is seen in gas stations on frequently traveled roads such as highways or expressways.

Most media suggests that the halting drop in prices at Polish stations is due to the unstable situation in the Middle East. Recently, there’s been uncertainty about whether Israel will attack Iran’s oil infrastructure, but that risk has already been reduced. The main factor stabilizing, and even raising, gas station prices is the weakness of the Polish zloty. The rising probability of Trump’s victory in the presidential election results in a strengthening dollar, as Trump is known for his protectionist policy. Additionally, there are prospects for the initiation of interest-rate cuts in Poland as early as March. Furthermore, the weakness of the Polish zloty is associated with possible changes in the budget and the weakness of regional currencies such as the Hungarian forint and the Czech koruna.

The risk related to the situation in the Middle East has diminished. Although Israel has decided to retaliate in response to the October 1st missile attack, the retaliatory actions were limited and targeted at military infrastructure. Iran has not announced a response, leading to the pricing out of the entire risk premium in the oil market. Moreover, recall that OPEC+ will start increasing production beginning in December, which puts pressure on a further decline in prices.

In theory, this could also indicate a drop in prices at Polish stations in the near future, but on the other hand, the noticeable weakness of the zloty impedes this. Not long ago, a dollar was worth PLN 3.80, but by the end of October, it’s even PLN 4.03. However, the recent declines in the oil market and zloty stability in the last few sessions should lead to price stabilization in the fuel market. Nonetheless, an increase in demand around October 31 and November 1 could lead to a price hike, but it should not exceed a few pennies. If the situation with the zloty does not worsen, after the extended weekend, station prices may slightly decrease.