According to expectations, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) has kept interest rates unchanged for the 13th consecutive time. The main interest rate remains at 5.75%. However, a surprising statement came from NBP President A. Glapiński during a press conference on Thursday. His comments indicated that the Bank’s Council (RPP) discussed the impact of the extended freeze on electricity prices on inflation (the Polish government has decided to extend the current freeze on electricity prices for households until the end of September 2025). Glapiński mentioned that discussions about lowering interest rates would only begin in October 2025 (as opposed to March 2025, as previously indicated by a majority of the Council), and any rate cuts would be postponed until 2026 due to Poland facing a new wave of inflation (the Council is concerned about rising inflation following the lifting of the price freeze).
According to the final PMI data for November, the European industrial sector remains in a slump (Germany at 43.0 points, the Eurozone at 45.2 points). German industrial orders for October decreased by 1.5% month-over-month (following a significant revision for September with a decline of 7.2% month-over-month). The November ISM index from the U.S. manufacturing sector was a pleasant surprise (48.4 points compared to market estimates of 47.7 points), while the ISM Services index disappointed (52.1 points compared to an estimated 55.5 points in November).
Throughout the week, the euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar, with trading moving from 1.05 USD/EUR to near 1.06 USD/EUR (1.057 on Friday morning). At the beginning of December, the Polish złoty strengthened against both major currencies. Against the euro, the złoty fell below 4.30 PLN/EUR and was slightly below 4.27 PLN/EUR on Friday morning. Against the dollar, the złoty appreciated to 4.03 PLN/USD (a combination of the złoty’s appreciation against the euro and changes in the EUR/USD exchange rate).
Source: https://managerplus.pl/nbp-pozostawia-stopy-procentowe-bez-zmian-ale-zaskakuje-przesunieciem-planow-obnizek-na-2026-r-68716
