On Sunday, 20th of October, presidential elections and a constitutional referendum will take place in Moldova, the results of which are expected to confirm the pro-European course of the country. According to polls, the Moldovan society in the referendum will most likely vote for accession to the EU. However, Russia is trying to influence the results of the upcoming voting, threatening a “repetition of the Ukrainian scenario” and entanglement of Moldova in a war. European Parliament members point out that Russia is using a whole range of hybrid actions – from cyber attacks and disinformation to bribing voters.
“Moldova has very clearly expressed its desire to join the EU, and the way in which this is being demonstrated by Moldovan society, and the number of EU flags on the streets of Moldova, clearly show its desire to be with us in a common Europe. Moldova is already to some extent a part of this Community – not formally, but mentally. But, importantly, democratic presidential elections and EU referendum must take place without any disruption, which will determine whether Moldova can continue on the path of integration with the EU. In order for this to be possible, we have to combat the threat of hybrid warfare from Russia and its attempts to put pressure on, to deter Moldova from the European Union,” said Michal Wawrykiewicz, an MEP for Civic Platform.
The incumbent President Maia Sandu, who has held office since 2020 and initiated pro-European reforms and the process of the country’s independence from Russia, is running for re-election in Sunday’s elections. Shortly after Russian aggression on Ukraine in March 2022, she applied for Moldova’s membership in the EU. In June of the same year, the country obtained candidate status, and in December 2023, EU leaders agreed to start accession negotiations. These were officially inaugurated in the middle of this year, with the EU also starting negotiations with neighboring Ukraine.
The key opponent of Sandu in the upcoming election is formally independent Alexandr Stoianoglo, accused of submitting to Russian influences. However – as evaluated in an October analysis by the Polish Institute of International Affairs – President Sandu, perceived as a guarantee of further integration with the EU, is most likely to be re-elected, albeit probably in the second round of elections. According to a survey by iData from September, she may count on 27% support, but the polls do not take into account the voices of the diaspora, which mainly supports the Western aspirations of Moldova and Maia Sandu. Alexandr Stoianoglo can count on 11% of the votes. As PISM notes, the pro-Russian opposition has not consolidated and has fielded many candidates, which diminishes its chance of electoral success.
In conjunction with the presidential elections, Sandu initiated a constitutional referendum on October 20th about the addition to the preamble of the “European identity of the nation” and integration with the EU as a strategic goal of Moldova. This will effectively be voting for accession, which the government there is planning by 2030. According to the iData survey quoted by PISM, 46% of voters intend to vote “for” at a predicted 67% voter turnout, “against” – 39%, and 13% of respondents are undecided. The actual result may be considerably better, thanks to the mobilization of the diaspora.
“The presidential elections and referendum in Moldova is a turning point in the history of this country. We see that Russian influences are diminishing since then, we are dealing with blackmail and threats from Putin’s regime. The director of the FSB recently spoke of the possibility of extending armed conflict to Moldova. This is not a real threat, but an attempt to intimidate a society that is favoring the European option,” says Michal Szczerba, an MP for the Civic Platform. “In this context, the visit to Chisinau by Prime Minister Tusk at the beginning of September was important, as it clearly demonstrated that we stand by Moldova. We also want to take advantage of the Polish presidency in the Council of the European Union to accelerate expansion talks not only about Ukraine but also about Moldova.”
PISM notes that in August and September, EU leaders intensified their visits to Chisinau, sending a clear message of support for Moldova’s accession aspirations. Apart from Donald Tusk, Chisinau was visited by the presidents of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Romania, the Chancellor of Germany, the ministers of Luxembourg and Greece. The latest edition of the Moldova Support Platform was also held there – a forum of over 60 Western countries and international organizations that offered 380 million Euros to support further reforms in the country.
At the same time, Russia intends to influence the results of the upcoming votes, and for months has been threatening a “repetition of the Ukrainian scenario” and entanglement of Moldova in a war. For some time now, the intimidation of local society has been the goal of Russian propaganda.
“These Russian pressures, which are taking place at the moment, involve disinformation, manipulation, a chilling effect and threats that the pro-European option in the presidential elections and a positive result of the constitutional referendum may lead to a deterioration of relations with Moscow. However, Moldovan society unequivocally chooses a European future, it certainly does not choose a terrorist country, as the Russian Federation has become. This path should be strongly supported also from the position of the European Parliament,” emphasizes Michał Szczerba.
In response to Russian pressures, on October 9th, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning Russian interference in Moldova (508 votes in favor and 53 against, with 104 abstentions), which serves as a warning against constant attempts to push the country off the EU path. In it, MEPs highlighted the role of pro-Russian, Moldovan oligarchs, and the Russian RT network (formerly Russia Today) in committing electoral fraud, cyber attacks, and information warfare. They called on the Union and its Member States to provide all necessary assistance to Moldova in strengthening its capacity to respond to hybrid threats.
“These are various methods of cyber attacks, election fraud, influencing public opinion, financing political parties, that is the entire arsenal of hybrid actions that Russia is deploying in many different countries. Unfortunately, in the past they were successful, so there is a real fear that in Moldova these actions by Russian services may prove to be effective,” assesses Michał Wawrykiewicz.
According to information from Moldovan security services, noted by the European Parliament, Russia so far has spent approximately 100 million Euros to weaken the upcoming electoral process and persuade Moldovan society to vote against closer ties with the EU. At the beginning of October, the authorities in Chisinau also uncovered a large-scale electoral fraud program, financed by the pro-Russian Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, involving 15 million dollars delivered to 130,000 Moldovan citizens as part of a voter bribery operation. Condemning such tactics, the EU Parliament called on Russia to respect Moldova’s independence, cease provocations, and withdraw its military forces from its territory. Additionally, MEPS emphasized the need to accelerate accession talks and further strengthen cooperation with the country.
“Of course, Moldova must meet the criteria for joining the European Union, and this is a great challenge for the country – both economic criteria, which are very difficult to meet, and criteria related to rule of law, with adapting the local legal system to the requirements of EU treaties. However, I am sure that the determination of the Moldovan people is moving toward fulfilling these conditions,” said the MEP.
