The year 2024 was marked by significant changes and uncertainties across financial markets. While many assets hit record highs, persistent risks loomed. The technology sector continued to dominate, while the real estate market experienced a significant correction after a prolonged boom. High inflation and geopolitical instability remained key concerns.
Despite signs of stabilization following turbulent years in 2020 and 2022, 2025 presents fresh challenges. Global economic growth is expected to slow, though individual economies may show divergent dynamics. Success in this dynamic market will require investors to prepare for unpredictable events as geopolitical tensions, technological advances, and evolving trends shape the global economy.
In this report, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the key events in 2024 and offer insights into what lies ahead in 2025. We examine major markets, outline potential scenarios, and highlight key trends to watch. Particular focus is given to:
- Macroeconomic Environment: Assessing global economic prospects and the impact of macroeconomic factors on financial markets.
- Currency Markets: Examining the dynamics of the Polish złoty and the EUR/USD pair.
- Equity Markets: Focusing on the U.S. stock market (Wall Street) and developments in China.
- Commodity Markets: Analyzing trends in key commodities such as oil and gold.
- Cryptocurrencies: Exploring the evolving cryptocurrency market with a spotlight on Bitcoin.
- Selected Companies: Highlighting firms that could replicate Nvidia’s success in 2024.
Inflation and Monetary Policy in 2025
The global economy, recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis, remains in a state of dynamic change. While inflation has eased and central banks have begun loosening monetary policy, uncertainty still clouds the horizon.
The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency adds another layer of complexity. His proposed foreign and economic policy changes raise concerns about slower growth in key regions like China and Europe. Potential conflicts with the Federal Reserve, especially regarding the pace of monetary normalization, could jeopardize the U.S. economy’s chances for a “soft landing.”
Inflation could resurface if Trump’s protectionist policies, such as high tariffs and trade restrictions, are implemented. These measures might stimulate certain domestic sectors in the short term but would likely raise living costs for American consumers and disrupt global supply chains.
Gold: Will It Shine Again in 2025?
Gold had a stellar year in 2024, with prices driven by geopolitical tensions, monetary easing, and U.S. presidential elections. The question remains whether it will continue to perform strongly in 2025. Key factors influencing gold prices include:
- U.S. interest rate outlook and inflation.
- Investment demand, especially from ETFs and central banks, alongside trends in jewelry consumption (notably in China).
- Geopolitical developments under Trump’s administration, including conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and potentially Taiwan.
Historical trends suggest gold often performs well during rate-cutting cycles. If history repeats, gold could surpass $3,000 within two years of the first rate cut. However, a sharp rise in inflation or resolutions to geopolitical conflicts might dampen gold’s appeal.
Bitcoin: Another Bull Run in 2025?
Cryptocurrencies experienced a resurgence in 2024, with Bitcoin gaining over 115% during the year, driven by:
- U.S. Bitcoin ETFs accumulating the cryptocurrency.
- A crypto-friendly stance from Trump’s administration.
- Halving events reducing Bitcoin supply.
- Increased long-term holding by investors.
As ETFs now control over 1.1 million BTC (5.5% of total supply), Bitcoin’s continued rally in 2025 is plausible, especially with further regulatory support for cryptocurrencies. However, risks include potential shifts in fiscal or regulatory policy that could temper the enthusiasm for digital assets.
Oil Prices: Heading for $50 per Barrel?
Oil faced a volatile 2024, with initial concerns about Middle Eastern supply disruptions giving way to oversupply and weak demand from China. In 2025, OPEC+ is expected to gradually restore production, while U.S. producers may ramp up output under Trump’s administration. This could drive prices down further.
Forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggest modest demand growth but a likely supply surplus in the latter half of 2025. Prices could drop to $50 per barrel, pressuring producers to adjust output.
Stock Markets: New Highs or Correction?
U.S. equity markets saw strong gains in 2024, led by technology and AI-driven companies. Despite high valuations, structural economic shifts could justify further growth. However, challenges such as trade tensions under Trump’s administration and slower corporate earnings growth may cap gains.
Key drivers to watch in 2025 include:
- Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
- Earnings growth from non-tech sectors.
- Geopolitical and trade developments.
Conclusion
The financial markets of 2025 will likely be shaped by macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and technological innovation. While uncertainty looms, opportunities remain for investors attuned to evolving trends. Gold, Bitcoin, and innovative companies like Fortinet, Datadog, and SoFi Technologies could offer compelling investment narratives in the year ahead.
Source: Manager Plus
