According to the Q3 2024 report
“At a Glance: Industrial and Logistics Market in Poland” by BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, the sector is stabilizing after the rapid changes of recent years, with signals pointing toward further development. The market remained stable in Q3 2024, with no abrupt changes in supply, demand, or vacancy rates.
Economic Factors and Sector Development
The rise in core inflation to 4.9% year-on-year by the end of September and a 3% decline in retail sales year-on-year (according to the Central Statistical Office – GUS) have impacted the e-commerce sector, which, alongside logistics, is a key tenant of warehouses. This has influenced the industrial and logistics real estate market.
“Industrial and logistics developers remain cautious with speculative investments, focusing mainly on projects with partially contracted tenants. The total pipeline of projects under construction by the end of September reached 1.94 million sq m, with more than half (53%) already secured by lease agreements,” said Martyna Kajka, Director of the Industrial and Logistics Department at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
From July to September 2024, the most industrial and logistics space under construction was concentrated in the following regions:
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- Lower Silesia: 522,000 sq m
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- Upper Silesia: 295,000 sq m
Despite challenges from the global economic slowdown and a decrease in new supply, analysts highlight the resilience of the Polish industrial and logistics market. Factors such as a stabilized vacancy rate, growing demand, and Poland’s attractiveness as a logistics and industrial destination point toward continued positive development.
Supply and Vacancy Rates
In the first three quarters of 2024, 2.1 million sq m of new warehouse space was delivered, a 33% decrease year-on-year. The highest delivery of new space in this period was in the following zones:
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- Lower Silesia: 373,000 sq m
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- Warsaw I & II: 311,000 sq m combined
In Q3 alone, the most new space was delivered in the following regions:
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- Central Poland: 142,000 sq m
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- Upper Silesia: 104,000 sq m
At the end of Q3, the vacancy rate was 8.0%, representing a 0.3 percentage point (p.p.) decrease from the previous quarter and a 0.2 p.p. increase compared to Q3 2023. The highest vacancy rates were recorded in the following regions:
The lowest vacancy rates were observed in:
Who is Leasing Warehouse Space in Poland?
The BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland report indicates strong interest in warehouse space among tenants. The total gross leasing volume from January to September exceeded 3.8 million sq m, a 3% increase year-on-year. In Q3 alone, leasing transactions totaled over 1.1 million sq m, a 34% drop compared to the previous quarter.
The top three regions for leasing activity in Q3 were:
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- Central Poland: 223,000 sq m
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- Upper Silesia: 134,000 sq m
The retail and e-commerce sectors dominated demand from January to September, accounting for 24% of all lease agreements. Third-party logistics (3PL) firms followed closely, with a 23% share. Notable transactions in Q3 included Amazon’s new 211,000 sq m logistics center in Gorzyczki, adding to its 10 existing facilities in Poland. New tenants are also entering the Polish market, such as Notino, a European e-retailer of cosmetics and health products, which opened its first warehouse in Gołuchów near Łódź. Additionally, GLP is constructing a logistics center in Stary Konik near Warsaw, featuring the largest timber roof structure in Poland.
High Rate of Lease Renewals
Lease renewals remain significant in the demand structure. In Q2 2024, renewals accounted for 41%, 11 p.p. lower than new agreements during the same period. In Q3, renewals made up 35%. Given current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions, industrial and logistics tenants are cautious about speculative moves, preferring to maximize the use of existing space or sublease portions to optimize costs.
“Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the warehouse market has undergone significant changes. Rents for industrial and logistics space, particularly for new developments, have risen sharply due to increasing construction and financing costs. In some cases, rents have doubled, making decisions about new locations more deliberate. As a result, we are seeing a high proportion of lease renewals. Tenants carefully calculate relocation costs, often choosing to remain in older buildings with lower rents,” explained Robert Pawłowski, Director of the Industrial and Logistics Department at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
New Trend: Re-Commerce
The report also highlights the rise of the re-commerce sector, which could introduce new roles for warehouses. Re-commerce—the market for selling used products—spans industries such as fashion, electronics, furniture, and sports equipment. According to the
“Offer-Up Recommerce Report,” the global re-commerce market is expected to reach $275 billion by 2028. Amazon already generates over €1 billion annually from selling used items.
The rapid growth of the second-hand market will require new solutions. Warehouses will need to handle not only storage but also sorting. Reception areas must be integrated with quality control zones where items are inspected, classified, and labeled. Facilities will also need refurbishment areas to repair, clean, or fix product imperfections.
Source: Manager Plus
