Analysis of nearly 60,000 retail prices has shown that daily shopping in stores increased by an average rate of 3.9% annually in February 2024. Consequently, the decrease in single-digit growth dynamics has continued for another consecutive month. Only two of the seventeen analyzed categories experienced a double-digit increase. Ten categories showed single-digit growth, while five categories declined. The highest increase was seen in food supplements such as ketchup and mayonnaise – 12.1% annually. The top five price increases also include sweets and desserts (10.5%), household chemicals (9.4%), non-alcoholic beverages (8.7%), and personal hygiene products (8.4%). Conversely, the most significant decrease was seen in fat-based products at -16.7% annually. The rest of the declines ranged from 4.4% to 0.4% annually.
As shown by the recurring report titled “RETAIL SHOP PRICE INDEX”, authored by UCE RESEARCH and WSB Merito Universities, daily shopping in stores also increased by an average rate of 3.9% annually in February 2024. In January, there was an increase of 4.8%. Thus, the decrease in single-digit growth dynamics has been observed for several months now.
According to NBP forecasts, inflation this year will be between 2.8% and 4.3%. The current average level of price increase in retail stores is within this range. However, the pace of changes may not be as dynamic as before. Moreover, the announcement that the 5% VAT on food is to be reinstated may already be slowing the pace of price growth. Afterwards, products which have been decreasing annually may become more expensive – commented Dr. Artur Fiks from WSB Merito University in Warsaw.
In February, out of 17 monitored categories, 10 exhibited single-digit growth (8 categories in January). Furthermore, double-digit increases affected 2 groups of goods (compared to 5 previously). In addition, 5 declines were noted (4 the previous month).
According to analysts from UCE RESEARCH, food additives such as ketchups, mayonnaises, mustards, and spices featured the most significant price increase of 12.1% in February. In January, they had a similar rise in rank from the third to the first position. However, this high level of growth during the winter period indicates that manufacturers do not feel market pressure to reduce prices. At the same time, the level of demand is satisfying for them – analyzed Dr. Artur Fiks.
A few categories experienced a decrease. These included, among others, dairy products with a decrease of 0.4% per year, fruits – by 0.1%, stimulants (tea, coffee, beer, vodka) – by 1.4%, and bulk products – by 4.4% annually. As Dr. Anna Semmerling emphasizes, in the case of dairy and fruit products, we should talk about stabilization, resulting from achieving certain levels of increases. Concerning the latter category, it is also essential that local fruits will soon hit the market. Their prices, as every year, will be high during the first period, but will systematically decrease in the following weeks.
Conversely, the most considerable decline occurred again in fat-based products, i.e., -16.7%. This category was the most expensive for many months during high inflation. The noticeable declines that have been visible for some time now have two sources. The first is a reduction in price compared to the previously inflated value. The second is competition for the customer. Stores have noticed that promotions on fat-based products attract consumers. As a result, reducing their prices has become an important element of promotional campaigns – summarized Dr. Anna Semmerling.
This data comes from the recurring report titled “RETAIL SHOP PRICE INDEX”published by UCE RESEARCH and Merito WSB Universities. The analysis shows the average price value, observed month by month, and year by year. The latest issue compared the results from February 2024 and the analogous period from 2023, and concerned 17 categories and nearly 100 of the most frequently chosen by consumers everyday products. In total, over 59.9 thousand retail prices from over 27.6 thousand stores belonging to 55 trading networks were compared. The study encompassed all discount stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience networks, and cash&carry reaching the majority of consumers in Poland.
