Yesterday’s data from the Polish economy did not surprise analysts. However, a slight surprise was the symbolic downward shift of WIBOR rates. In the background, U.S. crude oil inventories fell clearly weaker than expected, leading to a depreciation of oil.
Poland’s GDP No Surprise
The final data on Poland’s GDP did not surprise markets. It was expected to be 3.2% year-on-year and it was indeed, 3.2%. In quarterly terms, the result is 1.5%, which objectively speaking, is a very good outcome. The last time annual GDP grew faster was in the fourth quarter of 2022 when the impact of inflation and Russian aggression on Ukrainian territory had not yet stifled the results. The last higher quarterly result was when the Russians invaded our eastern neighbour. The maintenance of these data allowed the zloty to make up for some of the losses it suffered yesterday.
WIBOR Rates Moved
Good news for zloty borrowers who have opted for variable interest rates. The rate, which depends on the interest of loans, finally moved downwards. It is not yet a very rapid move, but both at 6 and 12-month rates, a slow downward movement can be observed. This means that the market is starting to price in interest rate drops at this time. Of course, it must be remembered, the scale of these cuts suggests a very slow decrease, but always. And of course, six months is February 2025, which is not very soon. It would, however, be an important change in expectations, as so far many members of the Monetary Policy Council have been pushing back decisions on rate cuts. If this move were to continue, it would signal a weakening of the Polish currency.
U.S. Oil Stocks
Yesterday we learned about changes in U.S. oil resources. The market expected a weekly drop of 3 million barrels; in fact, stocks fell “just” by 0.85 million barrels. This is therefore information that during the week over 2% of world daily production appeared on the market. The whole world, at the end of last year, extracted just over 80 million barrels per day. As a result, we saw a drop in commodity prices once again. Brent crude, i.e. listed in London, now costs about 77 dollars per barrel. To better represent where we currently stand on the charts, it’s best to compare this to the lowest and highest levels this year. The most expensive price for Brent was more than 92 dollars, and the least was nearly 75 dollars. We are therefore relatively very close to yearly lows, despite tensions in the Middle East. As you can see, the coming weaker business cycle is taking precedence over fears of escalation.
Today in the macroeconomic data calendar, attention should be paid to the:
2:00 PM – Germany – consumer inflation,
2:30 PM – USA – Gross Domestic Product.
Maciej Przygórzewski – chief analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat.pl.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/pkb-bez-niespodzianek-stawki-wibor-powoli-w-dol-ropa-tanieje-68479
