The turn of the year has not brought significant changes to fuel prices. A slight wholesale price increase has aligned current prices with those observed in late November and early December. On the other hand, a minimal decrease in the price of unleaded 95 (commonly known as “95”) was noted at gas stations, averaging a drop of 2 groszy per liter. For the upcoming week, slight fluctuations (up to 2 groszy per liter) in the prices of gasoline and diesel are expected.
In the Rotterdam stock exchange, the price of Brent crude oil fell by 30 cents per barrel in recent days, continuing to hover within the narrow range of $70–$74 per barrel for the past two months. Interestingly, despite fluctuations throughout the year, the current price differs by only 40 cents per barrel from the price on January 2, 2024. This underscores the dynamic yet relatively predictable nature of global commodity markets.
What Will Influence Fuel Prices in 2025?
As the new year begins, many questions arise about the future of fuel prices. Experts point to three key factors that may shape price trends:
- China Under the Microscope
Demand for oil in China, forecasted to peak between 2025 and 2027, is expected to play a stabilizing role in global oil prices in the coming year. - Geopolitical Tensions
Potential disruptions in supply from OPEC+ or the imposition of new sanctions on Iran could trigger instability in the commodity market. - India and Oversupply Risks
Rising oil demand in India, coupled with the risk of oversupply, are additional factors that could influence oil prices in 2025.
Outlook for Poland
In the short term, fuel prices in Poland are expected to remain relatively stable, though increased market volatility is anticipated. For logistics companies, effective cost management will be essential, with regular and well-planned refueling being critical to minimizing the impact of even minor price fluctuations.
For now, both drivers and businesses in Poland can breathe easy – fuel prices remain stable, with potential changes unlikely to exceed a few groszy per liter. Will this stabilization persist in the long term? That largely depends on global factors, which in 2025 could bring unexpected surprises for drivers.
Commentary by Marcin Wawrzkiewicz, Country Manager at Malcom Finance
