The average salary in the enterprise sector in January 2024 increased by 12.8 percent year on year. The consensus among economists was 10.9 percent. So, we have a big surprise in the January data. Compared to December 2023, the average salary dropped by 3.3 percent – the reading for December is always higher, this is due to seasonal factors, such as payment of bonuses at the end of the year. The factor that influenced the increase in the average salary in January was certainly the minimum wage increase. However, this effect was accounted for in the forecasts. Strong nominal wage growth with falling inflation means that real wages are also increasing significantly. The real wage growth in January was 8.9 percent. This may soon translate into a rebound in consumption. This is an argument against interest rate cuts.
Bartosz Wałecki, Analyst at Michael / Ström Dom Maklerski
