The European Central Bank (EBC) has left interest rates at their current level. The EBC has maintained these high rates for several months now. Inflation is heading towards the 2 percent target, but special attention should now be given to the readings of core inflation. President Lagarde emphasizes that rate cuts will occur only when the EBC is certain that the disinflation process is permanent and will lead to the target.
It seems that the EBC may wait a few more months before making decisions. Important will be the inflation data (especially inflation in services) and the condition of the labor market. The EBC is also not being pressured by decisions from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, who are also in no rush to make cuts. Consequently, we should expect the first cuts from the EBC no earlier than June.
Bartosz Wałecki, Analyst Michael / Ström Brokerage House
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