The question of Ukraine’s potential accession to the European Union and NATO will have tremendous significance, particularly for NATO’s eastern flank. “From Poland’s perspective and its long-term security, Ukraine must be a stable element of the eastern flank’s security system,” assesses Marek Budzisz from Strategy and Future. However, Ukraine’s presence in the Alliance implies the need for financial support from NATO countries for Ukraine and its defense capabilities. Conversely, delaying this process would not only entail a greater threat from Russia for Alliance members but also enormous needs for increasing their military potential. Both scenarios will be discussed at the Forum in Krynica.
“There’s a consensus among the countries which will decide on the pace of both these processes about the fact that Ukraine should become part of the European Union and eventually NATO. The subject of dispute or controversy, however, is the question of Ukraine’s preparation, accession conditions to both these organizations, and the pace,” underscores Marek Budzisz, an expert on Russia and post-Soviet countries in a conversation with Newseria Biznes.
The issue of Ukraine’s future and its accession to the EU and NATO will be one of the topics discussed at the Forum in Krynica, starting September 18th. The forum is institutionally partnered with Strategy and Future. Within the thematic tracks “Security and resilience” and “Geopolitics and geo-economics”, experts will address a wide spectrum of issues concerning the war in Ukraine, including the dynamics of military actions, current problems, and needs of Ukraine, desired scenarios for ending the war, and the impact of the American presidential elections on the course of the war. The track will also extensively tackle Poland’s security issues, including the assessment of the realness of the Russian threat.
“The place of Ukraine in the Western security structure is crucial, we must discuss it as these are extremely costly programs,” insists Marek Budzisz, who will be participating in the debate on this subject.
Members of the North Atlantic Alliance have repeatedly stressed that Ukraine’s future lies in NATO, and the country’s security is of great importance to all member states. As reported by the Centre for Eastern Studies, 2014 was crucial for NATO’s relations with Kyiv. After the annexation of Crimea, the Alliance not only politically backed Ukraine but also decided to provide it with concrete assistance. The most pressing issues were identified as an urgent transformation of the armed forces to be able to confront Russian aggression, increasing the level of interoperability with NATO, and allowing Ukraine to participate in more NATO exercises.
The full-scale attack of the Russian Federation on Ukraine significantly delayed the invitation of Ukraine to NATO, and discussing a timeframe seems difficult amid war. Until the conflict ends, NATO countries prefer to provide long-term support to Ukraine, which they see as sufficient and less risky. So far, the US has provided military aid worth over $50 billion, while European countries have given around $40 billion.
“The prospect of Ukraine agreeing to some form of ending the war or freezing the conflict and recognizing Russian territorial gains seems unlikely. This means we have an unresolved problem of the legal status of Ukrainian territories, perhaps not in terms of interpreting international law, but in terms of assessing the actual situation, which affects the risk assessment associated with accepting Ukraine into NATO,” points out the Strategy and Future expert.
Even a potential end to the war does not mean that Ukraine would quickly join NATO. As Marek Budzisz points out, it is unclear whether Europe will be able to generate funds to co-finance the Ukrainian military potential, which might cost up to $50 billion annually.
“Ukrainian government representatives say that in peacetime, the Ukrainian army should number about 350,000 people. They should be armed forces equipped with modern equipment, capable of resisting a potential next aggression by the Russian Federation, because few believe that the Russians would accept a potential outcome of the war unless Ukraine surrenders. This means that Ukraine would have to bear the costs associated with maintaining such an army and its equipment, which it currently cannot afford. It is too poor and too devastated. That would be a fundamental dilemma that Europe would have to solve, because it is a problem of European security,” explains Marek Budzisz.
Experts emphasize that Ukraine serves as a kind of buffer preventing Russia from gaining access to NATO’s eastern flank and also engaging the Kremlin’s offensive potential. In case Ukraine loses, a real threat to the Alliance countries, especially those on the eastern flank, with Poland leading, becomes a reality.
“This will not only pose a threat, but will also force countries bordering the Russian Federation, with Poland being a key player, a significant increase in military spending and a change in how the country operates. Currently, we aim to spend about 4 percent of our GDP. Elbridge Colby, who was the deputy head of the Pentagon during the Trump administration and is touted to potentially lead his defense department, said in one of his interviews that countries threatened by the Russian Federation, such as Poland or the Baltic countries, Finland, should ultimately think about spending even 10 percent of their GDP on military potential, because that’s the math of security. This is the consequence of not accepting or delaying Ukraine’s accession to NATO. The process itself is very difficult, but from Poland’s perspective, if we think about long-term security, in generational terms, Ukraine must be a stable element of the eastern flank’s NATO security system,” he adds.
According to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), global defense spending increased by 9 percent year on year only in 2023, to a level of $2.2 trillion. This year, total NATO spending on this goal increased by 11 percent in 2024. The increase was even stronger among European NATO members, who increased their total military spending by 19 percent, after a significant rise of 9 percent in 2023. For comparison, the average annual increase in 2014-2022 was about 3 percent.
According to NATO data referred to by IISS, the share of defense budgets spent on equipment among alliance countries is rapidly growing. In 2014, it was 14 percent among European NATO members, currently, it’s 32 percent.
“The rebuilding of European countries’ military potential will absorb hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming years if taken seriously. If one were to think today about making, for instance, the Bundeswehr, once again a well-functioning army of NATO countries in Europe, German experts are offering various estimates, from €180 to €300 billion, to be made by 2030, which isn’t a very distant perspective. For any European country, who has disarmed after believing in the end of history, the account for the expenditures looks quite similar,” Budzisz calculates.
NATO data indicates that in terms of defense spending as a percentage of GDP, Poland leads with an index of 4.1 percent (which will be nearly 5 percent next year). In terms of defense spending, we rank fifth with $35 billion. The United States ($968 billion), Germany ($98 billion), the UK ($82 billion), and France ($64 billion) exceed us. Since 2014, Poland’s defense budget has tripled. Such an increase in expenditure, however, might prove insufficient.
“If Europe does not undertake this effort, we, as a country bordering the Russian Federation, will live in an increasingly growing threat, which will also impact our development prospects, for instance, the ability to absorb foreign investment. Investments are made less willingly in countries that may be battlegrounds in the future. Essentially, what we’re discussing here is the future of the Polish Republic in the outlook of the next generation,” assesses the expert on Russia and post-Soviet areas at Strategy and Future.
During the Forum in Krynica, a conference addressing challenges related to national and international security, the country’s development, and Poland’s geopolitical role, will be attended by, among others, President Andrzej Duda, who has granted the event his honorary patronage. Also present will be Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. The Forum in Krynica will last from September 18 to 20.
