Although a holiday was observed in Poland, markets continued to work non-stop. The upcoming US elections are making their presence felt, especially since the result, which was supposed to clarify, seems to be getting murkier. It’s worth considering data from the US in the light of hurricanes, otherwise they would be unbelievably weak.
Confusion in the Final Stretch
Until a few days ago, it seemed that the election result was more or less predetermined. However, the latest polls have decided to stir things up again. Donald Trump still leads, but his advantage is diminishing. Conducting a campaign mainly in so-called “swing states,” where the result can change dynamically, causes uncertainty to rise, even in areas previously considered safe for one side. Markets prefer stability. The balancing of powers in race is not stable. For this reason, the dollar is losing value – today’s market opening started with its significant depreciation against the euro and also against the zloty.
Data from Across the Ocean
On Thursday we learned three important readings from the US. American expenditures were better than expected. The job market also surprised positively, with fewer unemployment benefit applications than prognosed. To ensure it wasn’t all good news – the Chicago PMI index turned out dramatically. Instead of the expected 47 points, it reached a result of 41.6 points. The markets decided that this negative surprise was more important, especially in connection with poll changes. As a result, Thursday was a day of dollar depreciation.
Friday on the Markets
Friday was a very strange day on the market. Although Poles, Slovaks and Hungarians were having a day off, this only had local significance. The most interesting thing happened in the US, where our days off are insignificant. Employment data appeared – the change in employment in the non-agricultural sector was 12 thousand people, and in the private sector it fell by 28 thousand. It’s worth noting that over the last two years these readings fell below 100 thousand only once – in October 2023, it was 99 thousand. What caused such weak results? The cause was the hurricanes, which caused huge losses. Additionally, investors apparently expected an even worse situation, because despite the weak data, they were buying dollars.
Today in the macroeconomic data calendar, pay attention to:
4:00pm – USA – orders on goods.
Over the weekend, the time change in the USA took place, so we are returning to the standard hours of readings.
Maciej Przygórzewski – chief analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl
The post, “Continued Confusion on the Dollar,” first appeared on CEO Magazine.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/zamieszania-na-dolarze-ciag-dalszy-36639
