Since the beginning of 2024, cocoa prices have skyrocketed by over 200%, outpacing Bitcoin’s 180% increase. Alongside cocoa, markets for coffee and orange juice also delivered substantial returns for investors.
Investors trading cocoa futures earned even more than the raw price increase might suggest.
“When we see significant price movements, the situation with futures contracts—especially their rollovers—changes even more dramatically,” Michał Stajniak, Deputy Director of Analysis at XTB, told MarketNews24. “Taking into account futures rollovers, cocoa prices have risen by over 360%.”
This price surge is linked to a production deficit in West Africa, with the market deficit ballooning to 500,000 tons—the largest in history. The baseline scenario indicates that this deficit will persist into the next season.
Cocoa now costs over $12,000 per ton. For cocoa-based product manufacturers, the issue is compounded by nearly depleted cocoa stockpiles, forcing them to enter contracts at these elevated prices.
Orange Juice and Coffee Follow Cocoa’s Lead
Second only to cocoa, orange juice prices have risen by 150%, reaching historic highs. Coffee prices are up 100%, securing third place.
The orange juice spike is largely attributed to production issues in the U.S. caused by hurricanes.
“Coffee prices have hit historic highs, surpassing levels last seen in the 1970s on futures contracts,” the XTB expert explained. “A projected surplus has turned into a significant deficit due to production uncertainty in Brazil and Vietnam.”
Sugar Stabilizes, Soy and Wheat Decline
Fears of a significant sugar price increase have eased, as production concerns diminished, leaving futures prices nearly unchanged.
Not everything experienced price hikes, though. Soybean and wheat prices have declined, with investors wary of a repeat of the trade war during Donald Trump’s first presidency. Back then, high tariffs led to a sharp drop in corn and soybean prices as China halted its purchases. Today, high production levels in South America add to oversupply concerns, further depressing prices.
Gold and Bitcoin Shine
Beyond the food markets, gold prices have risen by 26%, while Bitcoin surged by 180%. These extraordinary movements made 2024 a standout year for commodity markets.
Source: Manager Plus
