In November 2024, compared to November 2023, banks and credit unions granted more cash loans (+15.6%) in numerical terms. However, they granted fewer mortgage loans (-35.7%), installment loans (-29.7%), and issued fewer credit cards (-6.7%). In terms of value, banks and credit unions approved higher amounts only for cash loans (+27.4%). The value of mortgage loans (-31.9%), installment loans (-8.5%), and credit card limits (-1.3%) showed negative dynamics.
From January to November 2024, in numerical terms, banks and credit unions granted more mortgage loans (+31.9%), installment loans (+31.8%), cash loans (+14.1%), and more credit cards (+3.0%). In terms of value, during this period, they granted a 45.8% higher value of mortgage loans, a 27.1% increase in cash loans, a 16.0% increase in installment loans, and a 14.9% increase in credit card limits.
Installment Loans: Light Increases Month-to-Month, but Significant Year-on-Year Decrease, Especially in the Number of Loans Granted
In November 2024, there was a 10.8% increase in the number of installment loans granted compared to October 2024. The value of these loans also grew by 20.2% month-to-month.
– Analyzing the latest data on installment loans for November 2024, we observe a significant year-on-year decrease in their number. This is due to a reduction in small-value transactions, mostly from converting unpaid obligations with deferred payment terms. This might be linked to lower consumer spending compared to the previous year and a shift in behavior among Poles, with a greater inclination toward saving. We also see a decrease in value, though smaller, due to high-value installment loans for financing more expensive goods and services. The monthly increases in both the number and value of granted installment loans can be explained by the fact that November has historically been one of the best months for installment loans, tied to holiday gift purchases,” says Dr. Waldemar Rogowski, Chief Analyst at BIK Group.
Cash Loans – A Bright Spot Year-on-Year
Despite positive year-on-year dynamics in both numerical and value terms, there were slight month-to-month decreases in November 2024: -3.4% and -6.2%, respectively.
– Since the beginning of 2024, the credit action in the cash loan segment has increased by 14.1% in numerical terms and 27.1% in value compared to the same period in 2023. Customers are taking out cash loans in increasingly higher amounts, with the main driver being loans over PLN 50,000. This is primarily linked to external and internal consolidations, growing consumption needs, and greater availability of loans for higher amounts due to increased creditworthiness, along with rising salaries and a stable but still high level of interest rates,” explains Prof. Rogowski.
The average value of an installment loan granted in November 2024 was PLN 2,646, an increase of 30.1% compared to November 2023. The average value of a cash loan was PLN 24,423, which represents a 10.2% increase compared to November 2023.
Mortgage Loans Slowed Down: Decreases Year-on-Year and Month-on-Month in November
In November 2024, banks granted 35.7% fewer mortgage loans compared to November 2023 and 10.5% fewer compared to October 2024. In terms of value, the situation was similar, with a decrease of 31.9% year-on-year and 9.5% compared to the previous month.
However, from January to November 2024, mortgage loans still showed a strong positive dynamic compared to the same period last year, both numerically (+31.9%) and in value (+45.8%).
– Mortgage loans – despite the absence of a new support program – are performing quite well. The value of credit action in November 2024 amounted to PLN 6.72 billion, which is at a good level. The annual forecast for credit action at PLN 81 billion should be exceeded, as by November, it reached PLN 80.72 billion. It is important to note that this year’s credit action includes loans from applications submitted last year under the Safe Loan 2% Program, amounting to PLN 13.6 billion. Without this amount, the credit action value from January to November 2024 would be PLN 67.12 billion, a 21.2% increase compared to the same period last year.
The increase in the value of mortgage loans, more than their number, indicates that customers are taking out loans for higher amounts. This is linked to the purchase of more expensive properties due to still high market prices. The main factor behind the increase in credit action from January to November 2024 is the improvement in creditworthiness, which allows for higher-value mortgage loans, despite the highest interest rates in the EU for mortgage loans and no extension of loan terms. This can be explained by the fact that mortgage loans are currently being taken out by individuals with higher incomes.
In November, the average mortgage loan amount was PLN 429,200, a 6.0% increase compared to the previous year, and the highest amount in history.
By the end of November, 200,000 people had used the new terms of credit holidays starting on June 1, 2024, under 119,000 mortgage loans totaling PLN 35 billion.
Good Credit Quality in the Polish Banking Sector
In November, the values of all four Credit Quality Indexes significantly improved both year-on-year and month-on-month.
– All four Credit Quality Indexes continue to indicate a safe level of risk in the portfolio of loans granted to households. Undoubtedly, better loan repayment quality is associated with increased borrower wages and the stabilization of interest rates on repaid loans. However, constant monitoring of the values of individual Quality Indexes is necessary to identify signals of potential deterioration in the credit portfolio quality, but no such threat is currently visible on the horizon,” explains the Chief Analyst at BIK Group.
Source: managerplus.pl
