In March, the average asking price per square meter of new developer-built apartments in Wrocław exceeded PLN 15,000. Despite rising prices, demand for new homes remained strong. According to preliminary data from Otodom, developers sold 778 apartments in just one month — with only Warsaw recording a higher number of transactions. What is driving this surge in market activity?
As Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research at Otodom, notes, last month saw a clear dominance of demand over current supply in the capital of Lower Silesia. A similar trend was observed in Warsaw, Łódź, the Tricity area, and Katowice.
“In March, developers introduced 478 apartments for sale within Wrocław’s administrative boundaries. This means that sales exceeded current supply by 300 units,” emphasizes Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
At the same time, buyers still have a wide selection to choose from. At the end of March, the available developer housing stock in Wrocław stood at 7,872 units. However, the absorption rate — the time needed to sell the current inventory — has declined to 4.1 quarters. This means that if the current sales pace continues and no new units are added, the entire available stock would be sold out in just over a year. Notably, compared to the six other cities analyzed by Otodom, Wrocław’s absorption time remains relatively low. For comparison, in Katowice it reaches as much as 9.5 quarters.
What is behind the surge in demand?
The 25% month-on-month increase in developer apartment sales in March is not driven by buying euphoria, but rather by a unique combination of market and geopolitical factors.
“On the one hand, March was marked by a specific supply situation and typical end-of-quarter dynamics, when developers traditionally aim to secure their sales targets. On the other hand, purchasing decisions were clearly influenced by buyers’ natural tendency to ‘seize opportunities,’ amplified by the sudden return of macroeconomic concerns. Just days after reassuring messages from the National Bank of Poland, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East revived fears of higher inflation and slower GDP growth. As a result, the WIBOR 6M rate — crucial for mortgage interest rates — began to rise despite earlier interest rate cuts. In such a volatile environment, housing once again reinforced its position as a safe haven for savings, and the deeply rooted association among Poles between inflation and rising property prices accelerated purchase decisions, encouraging buyers to act now rather than wait a few months,” explains the Otodom research director.
Will prices only continue to rise?
Potential buyers who had been hoping for significant price drops have had to revise their expectations. In March, average asking prices for new apartments in Wrocław increased by 1.1% month-on-month and by 6.1% year-on-year, surpassing the PLN 15,000 per square meter threshold for the first time.
“In March, average asking prices rose in four of the seven cities analyzed. While such increases had already been observed in Warsaw and the Tricity in previous months, they are a relatively new phenomenon in the Poznań and Wrocław markets,” adds Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
As a result, Wrocław remains the fourth most expensive housing market among Poland’s seven largest cities. Only Warsaw (PLN 19,300 per sqm), the Tricity (PLN 17,800 per sqm), and Kraków (PLN 16,700 per sqm) record higher average prices. The scale of differences is clearly illustrated by comparison with Łódź, the most affordable city in the Otodom ranking. In Wrocław, the average price per square meter is already PLN 3,600 higher than in Łódź. Consequently, the total price of a two-room apartment with an area of 48 square meters amounts to approximately PLN 722,000. The same-sized property in Łódź can be purchased for around PLN 547,000 — PLN 175,000 less.
What will the coming months bring? According to Katarzyna Kuniewicz, it is still too early to assess the durability of the current price increases. A more reliable picture of the market situation is expected to emerge only at the end of April. There are strong indications that this is when the first negative effects of the Middle East conflict may begin to materialize in the Polish housing market.
