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Winter Travel Boom and Challenges for Low-Cost Airlines

HOSPITALITY INDUSTRYWinter Travel Boom and Challenges for Low-Cost Airlines

The last few days have marked the peak of school holidays in Poland, making it the perfect time to examine how Poles spend their winter breaks. Some choose to vacation in mountain resorts, while others seek sunshine abroad. The travel dynamics in January and February reflect two extreme strategies: “waiting for snow” or “escaping from snow.” The former usually means shorter weekend getaways within the country, while the latter involves more expensive and longer trips to warmer destinations. In total, approximately 4 million Poles travel during these two months. Paradoxically, despite this travel boom, low-cost airlines like Wizz Air and Ryanair are facing significant challenges, impacting their stock prices.

In 2025, school winter holidays in Poland were divided into four waves. From January 20 to February 2, students from the Kuyavian-Pomeranian, Lubusz, Lesser Poland, Świętokrzyskie, and Greater Poland provinces were on vacation. From January 27 to February 9, children from Podlaskie and Warmian-Masurian provinces had their break, followed by students from Lower Silesian, Masovian, Opole, and West Pomeranian provinces from February 3 to 16. The last group, from Lublin, Łódź, Subcarpathian, Pomeranian, and Silesian provinces, will be on holiday from February 17 to March 2. The highest number of students were on vacation simultaneously between January 27 and February 2, with seven provinces (five from the first wave and two from the second), meaning about 2 million out of Poland’s 4.8 million students were on break.

To analyze winter travel habits, we refer to data from Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) from 2023, as full data for 2024 is not yet available. In January 2023, Poles took 2.7 million domestic trips and 0.6 million international trips (a total of 3.3 million trips). In February, due to the peak of winter holidays, the numbers increased to 3.8 million domestic trips and 0.8 million international trips (4.6 million total). As a result, over these two months, Poles made 7.9 million trips—6.5 million within the country and 1.4 million abroad.

Despite the school break, winter travel still does not dominate Poland’s tourism calendar. It accounts for about 9% of all domestic trips and 10.6% of international travel annually. Overall, in 2023, 65.6% of Poles aged 15 and older took at least one trip. Winter is a specific period: fewer people are eager to travel in the cold of January, and those who do usually wait for good skiing conditions or opt for longer getaways to warmer regions.

According to GUS data, an average trip involved two people. This allows for an estimate that in January 2023, around 1.65 million Poles traveled, while in February, the number rose to 2.3 million, totaling about 4 million people. In domestic winter travel, short 2–4-day trips (weekend or extended weekend getaways) dominate. In January, these accounted for 1.9 million out of 2.7 million total domestic trips, and in February, 2.5 million out of 3.8 million. For international travel, long-term trips prevail—0.5 million out of 0.6 million in January and 0.7 million out of 0.8 million in February.

GUS data indicates that the average cost of a short (2–4 day) domestic trip in 2023 was 523 PLN, while an international trip cost 2,144 PLN. However, it is essential to note that these figures are from 2023 when travel prices were over 20% lower than today. Additionally, February trips tend to be more expensive, as more people opt for international vacations, usually as an “escape from snow” to warm destinations. Traveling within Poland’s mountains during the ski season can be cheaper than visiting foreign ski resorts, though accommodation and ski pass prices in popular Polish resorts are far from low.

Approximately 4 million Poles decide to travel in the first months of the year, making nearly 8 million trips in total. In January, shorter weekend getaways within Poland and longer international trips, often in search of sunshine, prevail. February marks the peak of Poland’s winter tourism season, with more family vacations linked to favorable conditions for winter sports. While winter travel remains a small fraction of overall tourism activity, the growing trend of “escaping the snow” is evident—more Poles see winter as an opportunity to visit warmer destinations, budget permitting.

During the holiday period, Poles frequently choose low-cost airlines such as Wizz Air and Ryanair. Both companies recently released their quarterly earnings reports, showing starkly different situations. While Ryanair reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase (to $8.58 billion) and ambitious plans to expand its fleet to 600 aircraft, Wizz Air is struggling with numerous issues, including grounding 20% of its fleet due to problems with Pratt & Whitney engines. The company estimates that some planes may be out of service for the next four to five years. Additionally, delayed Boeing 737 deliveries, affecting Ryanair as well, have forced the airline to lower its passenger forecast for 2026 from 210 million to 206 million. Despite these challenges, Ryanair’s stock has performed better than Wizz Air’s in the last quarter. However, investors remain cautious as both airlines strive to maintain stability amid significant uncertainty in the aviation industry.

Paweł Majtkowski, eToro Analyst in Poland

Source: https://ceo.com.pl/boom-na-zimowe-podroze-a-problemy-tanich-linii-lotniczych-90425

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