Markets on Edge Ahead of Nvidia’s Earnings. A Fourth Straight Day of Losses in the U.S.—Could the Traditional “Santa Rally” Fail to Appear This Year? Pressure on the PLN Builds as EUR/USD Moves Lower.
Sour Sentiment
Financial markets have been tense in recent days, with a clear “risk-off” mode dominating trading. Investors are increasingly concerned about potential overvaluation in the tech sector, as well as the delayed U.S. labor market report—postponed due to the government shutdown.
Today, after the U.S. session, Nvidia will publish its quarterly results, and this has become the focal point for global markets. The outcome is expected to shape investor sentiment for the coming days. Nvidia has become the symbol of the AI revolution and the prime beneficiary of it, as the company remains the largest global supplier of chips and full computing systems.
But the question raised over recent days is: When will these massive AI-related expenditures actually pay off? Investors have returned to basics—the profit-and-loss mechanism. A good example is Meta. The company reported huge planned AI expenditures, and the result was a nearly 20% drop in its share price after the report.
Volatility Guaranteed
Nvidia, however, is a different story—not only because of its size, but also due to its revenue structure. The company’s business is dominated by hardware sales, where demand is exceptionally strong. Other tech giants must first secure access to Nvidia’s hardware, and only then can they try to monetize AI.
Tension ahead of the earnings release is enormous. Analysts estimate that the stock could move by nearly 6.5% following the results, although there is no consensus on the direction. Some argue that spending skepticism is intensifying; others expect Nvidia to reaffirm the AI revolution narrative—potentially delivering a strong positive impulse for tech stocks through year-end.
Nvidia’s report is also viewed in the context of the traditional Santa Claus rally, which in past years has pushed markets higher in late December. Yet the last four trading sessions in the U.S. have been dominated by declines, prompting speculation that a deeper correction may be unfolding—and that the year might end on a weak note. Much depends on today’s results and, importantly, on how investors choose to interpret them—logic does not always prevail.
EUR/PLN Hovering Around 4.24
Recent days have also brought an appreciation of the U.S. dollar—particularly against the euro—signaling that investors are positioning defensively and demand for safe-haven assets is strong. This trend has weighed slightly on the Polish złoty. The EUR/PLN pair has risen by roughly 2.5 grosz, a small move that nonetheless highlights the PLN’s resilience amid global uncertainty.
The foundation of this stability is Poland’s economic performance, which remains impressive, with next year expected to deliver comparably strong growth. Monetary policy also supports the currency: rate cuts appear to be on pause for the next several months, and the current dominant scenario suggests that the Monetary Policy Council will wait for potential inflationary impulses that may emerge at the start of 2026.
Today’s Key Macroeconomic Data to Watch
11:00 – Eurozone – CPI inflation for October
15:15 – USA – Industrial production for October
20:00 – USA – Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting
