Traditionally, with the start of the new year, property development companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW) publish reports on their apartment sales for the last quarter and the entire previous year. This time around, the statistics presented by these market giants reached record progress levels year on year. As explained by experts at RynekPierwotny.pl, this is due to the exceptionally low baseline as well as a solid recovery from the previous year’s performance, stimulated by government initiatives that increased demand in the form of a 2% Safe Mortgage program. However, whether or not such a positive trend can be maintained in the coming year remains to be seen.
Optimistic Summary of a Successful Year
In the last quarter of the previous year, a select group of fourteen leading firms in the domestic real estate sector, companies listed on the primary market and the Catalyst of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, contracted sales of a total of 6014 units. This result is not only an impressive 60% improvement year over year, but also one of the best in the history of comparable quarterly periods. Now, the question is whether such a significant statistical increase in development contracting, notably due to the very low base year of 2022, can be maintained.
Mixed Feelings
Although the overall result of last year’s contracts seems above average and satisfying given current economic difficulties, it could give rise to mixed feelings. The overall sales of 23,000 units is exactly 5,000 units short of the record result from 2021. Considering the strong stimulation of demand in the form of a 2% Safe Mortgage program, concerns about the continuation of a good sales run in the primary housing market are warranted this year.
Three companies formally reported record annual sales results. On the other hand, from the four market leaders; Dom Development, Atal, Robyg and Murapol, only the first came close to the level of 4000 contracted units, a threshold clearly surpassed by all two years ago.
A Crossroads for WIG-Real Estate
The Warsaw Stock Exchange index for developer and real estate companies, WIG-Real Estate, is at a crossroads, despite the promising prospects for the development of the domestic primary housing market. This indicator has been on a clear downward trend for the past four months. This is in stark contrast to the decidedly “bullish” tendencies of the main GPW indices including WIG and WIG-20. The question arises, why such a situation?
It appears that stock market investors are not entirely confident in the positive effects of the theoretically salvific role of housing policy from successive governments, which relies on thoughtlessly pouring billions of zlotys of public money into preferential housing loans. This path of national housing development, which continuously stimulates demand without actively supporting the creation of adequate supply, is a risky game that could soon lead the primary housing market into a blind alley.
Author: Jarosław Jędrzyński, Expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
