Nighttime bans on alcohol sales being introduced in successive Polish cities, along with the announced prohibition on selling alcohol at fuel stations, are officially intended to improve public safety and reduce the negative effects of excessive alcohol consumption. According to experts, however, these regulations conceal a process that could have far-reaching consequences for the market. At issue is the redistribution of scarce municipal alcohol sales licenses, leading to further consolidation of the market in the hands of the largest retail chains.
Small neighborhood shops are the most severely affected by nighttime prohibition. For many of them, late opening hours or round-the-clock trading constitute a key competitive advantage over large chains. Restricting nighttime alcohol sales means a sudden drop in turnover, which in some cases may lead to business closures.
“For many small shops, nighttime sales are not an add-on but the foundation of profitability. Limiting them often means losing the economic rationale for operating at all,” says Piotr Palutkiewicz, Vice President of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute.
The collapse of small shops, however, has consequences that go beyond the mere disappearance of retail outlets. Each closure results in the release of an alcohol sales license, and under administrative limits these licenses become assets with real market value. In the largest cities, where license caps are almost exhausted, every available permit is immediately taken over by larger players.
Data from late 2025 show that in cities such as Gdańsk, Wrocław, and Warsaw, the license market is close to its administrative “ceiling.” This means that opening new alcohol outlets is possible almost exclusively through acquiring licenses from closing shops.
“When limits in large cities are nearly exhausted, the only growth path for large chains is to take over resources from weaker players. Nighttime prohibition, by reducing the profitability of neighborhood shops, effectively accelerates this process,” Palutkiewicz emphasizes.
A similar mechanism applies to fuel stations, which also operate under the same municipal licensing limits. When alcohol sales at stations are banned or become unprofitable, the permits formally return to the pool. In practice, however, they do not disappear from the market but are quickly absorbed by retail chains for which alcohol remains an important part of the offer.
Experts point out that banning alcohol sales at fuel stations could, with a single legislative move, release thousands of licenses nationwide, shifting all sales to daytime retail. At the same time, there is no evidence that changing the sales channel actually reduces overall alcohol consumption.
“Experience from other countries shows that there is no direct link between the place of sale and total alcohol consumption. Consumption does not disappear; only the place of purchase changes,” notes Andrzej Strojny, an analyst at the Warsaw Enterprise Institute.
In addition, as analysts emphasize, alcohol consumption in Poland has been steadily declining for several years and has reached its lowest level in over a decade. In this context, the introduction of ever more restrictive legal solutions raises questions about their true objectives.
“If consumption is falling and yet such drastic regulatory tools are being used, it is hard not to get the impression that health considerations are not the only motivation behind these changes,” Strojny assesses.
The described mechanism fits perfectly with the strategies of the largest retail chains, which openly declare further densification of their store networks in large cities. With licensing limits almost fully exhausted, the only remaining expansion route is to acquire permits from failing smaller businesses. Nighttime prohibition and the ban on alcohol sales at fuel stations facilitate this process by freeing up hundreds of previously “blocked” licenses.
“Under the façade of improving safety and public order, a quiet consolidation of the market is taking place. Licenses lost by local entrepreneurs and fuel stations do not disappear; they simply change hands, ending up with large capital groups,” Strojny concludes.
According to experts from the Warsaw Enterprise Institute, nighttime prohibition and the ban on alcohol sales at fuel stations are based on a mistaken belief in the effectiveness of bans. Demand for alcohol does not vanish, and beyond large retail chains, the grey market may also benefit from the restrictions. As a result, state intervention leads to a lasting change in market structure, accelerating consolidation around the biggest players, who become the main beneficiaries of regulations introduced under the banner of concern for public health.
