After the turbulent post-pandemic period and the correction of 2023–2024, 2025 brought stabilization to Poland’s investment land market. While residential developers continued to struggle with a shortage of plots in prime locations, the data center and energy storage sectors emerged as the new “dark horses,” redefining what constitutes attractive land. The market is undergoing a structural shift. The era of buying anything that carries a “buildable” designation is over. The age of mega shopping malls is fading. Proximity to highways alone is no longer enough. In energy and digital infrastructure, grid connection capacity has become the new currency. In 2026, access to power infrastructure is expected to be the primary driver of land values.
Scarcity fuels prices
According to 2025 summary data, Poland’s economy grew by approximately 3.4% GDP (in line with forecasts by EY and the European Commission). Falling inflation provided some relief, but high borrowing costs in the first half of the year continued to limit speculative activity. Instead of aggressively accumulating land banks, investors adopted “wait-and-see” strategies or focused on core assets in the largest urban centers.
The residential market in 2025 remained polarized. Data from Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) show that housing starts in the first three quarters of 2025 fell by around 8.5% year on year, reflecting developer caution and a limited supply of plots with fully regulated legal status.
One of the most important developments has been the persistent rise in asking prices for residential land—even amid a cooling housing market. Recent market reports indicate that investment land prices remain resistant to economic cycles, driven mainly by a shortage of plots with clear planning status (“clean” land) and expectations surrounding Poland’s upcoming spatial planning reform.
Market experts emphasize that even with reduced development activity, demand for well-located plots—especially in regional capitals—continues to exceed supply. This effect is particularly strong in large metropolitan areas such as Warsaw, where dozens of transactions involving domestic and foreign investors confirm a trend of moderate price growth and intense competition for the best parcels.
Land for multifamily development in Warsaw, Kraków, and the Tri-City area reached record valuations in 2025. In the capital, average transaction prices in top districts often exceeded PLN 3,000–5,000 per square meter of usable residential area. In major agglomerations, the land component of the final apartment price approached 20–25%.
This segment remained one of the most active parts of the market despite slower apartment sales. Investors point to the low supply of well-prepared plots with zoning plans, which continues to support both asking and transaction price pressure. Developers increasingly turned to brownfield redevelopment despite higher remediation costs, as greenfield sites within city limits have become scarce.
The era of nearshoring
After years of rapid expansion, the logistics land market entered a phase of maturity in 2025. According to reports by AXI IMMO and JLL, new warehouse supply slowed, and the market focused on absorbing existing stock, with vacancy rates around 8.2%.
Logistics land prices stabilized, and in less strategic locations slight corrections were recorded. However, the so-called “Big Six” logistics hubs—Warsaw, Upper Silesia, Central Poland, Wrocław, Poznań, and the Tri-City—maintained high valuations.
The key trend of 2025 was nearshoring: relocating production closer to end markets. This increased demand for Build-to-Own (BTO) sites for manufacturing companies, particularly in western and southern Poland (Lubuskie, Lower Silesia, and Silesia), as confirmed by ongoing announcements of new industrial investments.
The decline of mega malls
In 2025, virtually no land transactions were recorded for large-format shopping malls in major cities. Retail land activity shifted toward county-level towns and smaller municipalities, mainly those with populations under 20,000.
Developers focused heavily on acquiring 1–2 hectare plots for retail parks (convenience centers). These sites must offer excellent visibility and direct access from national or regional roads. Prices in this segment remained stable, but competition for the best corner locations in smaller towns was fierce throughout 2025.
Data centers and energy storage
These two sectors were the most dynamic forces in 2025 and effectively rewrote the rules of the game. Poland solidified its position as a data center hub for Central and Eastern Europe. Demand for new facilities is being driven by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and cloud services. The decisive factor is not price per square meter, but access to grid capacity—often tens of megawatts—and fiber connectivity.
Warsaw and its surrounding areas (such as Ożarów Mazowiecki and Grodzisk) remained the clear leader, concentrating around 80% of the market. However, investors began looking toward Poznań and Katowice due to electricity access constraints in the Mazovia region. PMR reports suggest that Poland’s total data center capacity could double by 2030, which in 2025 fueled speculative purchases of land with secured grid connection conditions.
At the same time, 2025 saw a boom in land acquisitions for large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS), driven by the need to stabilize renewable energy networks. Unlike photovoltaic farms, energy storage projects do not require vast areas—often just 0.5 to 2 hectares—but they require immediate proximity to major power substations. Plots located within 500 meters of a primary grid point gained “premium” status. Investors such as Enea and private funds actively sought Class IV–VI agricultural land, offering attractive lease rates—often higher than those for solar farms—provided grid connection approvals could be secured.
Summary and outlook
The investment land market in Poland in 2025 can be summed up in one word: selection. The time of buying anything labeled “buildable” is over. Key conclusions from 2025 are clear. In residential markets, land prices continued to rise in regional capitals amid severe supply constraints. Logistics stabilized, with growth concentrated along the western border due to nearshoring. In energy and digital infrastructure, grid capacity became the new currency—land without electricity is losing investment relevance. ESG requirements also played a growing role, with non-financial reporting pushing investors to assess environmental risks such as flood zones and biodiversity during due diligence.
Looking ahead to 2026, access to energy infrastructure is expected to become the main driver of land value. For landowners, this means that converting agricultural land is no longer enough—plots must also be equipped with properly scaled utility connections.
The commentary was authored by Mariusz Urbański, analyst and long-time real estate market expert at INWI Development.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/kto-ma-prad-ten-ma-premie-nowa-hierarchia-na-rynku-gruntow-17533
