Since the outbreak of Russia’s war in Ukraine in February 2022, Poland has become a primary destination for over one million Ukrainian nationals, including many entrepreneurs who have taken advantage of simplified business registration procedures. But what will happen to the nearly 90,000 companies founded by Ukrainians in Poland between 2022 and 2024 once the war ends?
Currently, the legal basis for Ukrainian entrepreneurs in Poland is the Act of March 12, 2022, on assistance to Ukrainian citizens. It grants individuals with war refugee status the right to establish and operate businesses under the same rules as Polish citizens, provided they have legal residence and a PESEL (UKR) number. This mechanism allowed Ukrainians to register sole proprietorships (JDG) in the CEIDG and companies in the KRS without the need for additional permits. The inclusion of spouses of Ukrainian nationals in the definition of “Ukrainian citizen” expanded these privileges to a broader group of migrants.
The end of the war will not automatically nullify these regulations. With over 700,000 Ukrainians working in Poland and a significant economic contribution from Ukrainian entrepreneurs, legislative changes will be necessary. “The government will likely revise visa requirements to adapt migration policy to the new geopolitical reality,” says Evgenij Kirichenko, CEO of Gremi Personal. This will particularly concern the procedures for extending residence permits, which are currently suspended under the wartime special act.
The impact of Ukrainian citizens on Poland’s labor market and GDP is backed by hard data from the Polish Economic Institute. Between 2022 and 2024, Ukrainians registered 77,700 sole proprietorships, accounting for 9% of all new businesses during that time. Additionally, 11,300 companies were established with Ukrainian capital, primarily in construction (24%), IT (18%), and specialized services (15%). In 2024, Ukrainians made up 12% of new entrepreneurs, with women owning 37% of these JDGs.
Ukrainian entrepreneurs helped offset a decline in Poland’s working-age population in 2024, which dropped by around 40% compared to 2021, maintaining supply chains and price stability in key sectors. Their estimated total contribution to Poland’s GDP in 2024 reached 2.3%, aided by a low business suspension rate (9%) and an even lower liquidation rate (4%).
However, the post-war transition may bring unexpected challenges. Will Ukrainians return en masse to rebuild their homeland? Judging by the resilience they’ve shown in defending their country, up to half a million might choose to go back. If they do, it could put pressure on Poland’s labor market, especially in low value-added sectors like logistics and manufacturing. Highly skilled entrepreneurs in IT and engineering are more likely to stay, taking advantage of access to the EU market.
“In my view, about half of the entrepreneurs will remain in Poland, benefiting from the dual taxation system. Those who return will likely transfer technologies via joint ventures. I don’t foresee a mass shutdown of businesses due to stricter visa policies. The transition period must guarantee legal stability for existing firms. A cross-border cooperation platform should be established to facilitate exports of goods produced in Poland by Ukrainian entities. Additionally, integrating the CEIDG and KRS databases with Ukraine’s tax registry will be essential to combat unfair competition,” Kirichenko explains.
The end of the war in Ukraine will bring both opportunities and serious challenges for the Polish economy. Ukrainian entrepreneurs, who account for 9% of newly established businesses, will face the choice of continuing their ventures in Poland or returning to help rebuild their homeland. The development of bilateral cooperation mechanisms will be crucial in safeguarding the interests of both nations while maintaining the growth momentum driven by labor migration.
Source: ManagerPlus.pl
