Over 60% of real estate agents predict that demand for secondary market apartments will increase moderately in the first quarter of 2026. Prices remain stable for now, but buyers should be aware that greater credit availability may drive rates up again in the second half of the year. These are the findings from the “Real Estate Market Sentiment Index” (Nastrojometr) following Q4 2025, prepared by the portal Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
Forecasts for Q1 2026 show that 61% of brokers expect rising demand for larger apartments, and 54% expect the same for studio apartments. However, the majority of agents note that this will not be a sudden surge in interest, but rather a moderate improvement compared to the end of last year.
“DEMAND FOR APARTMENTS IN THE FIRST MONTHS OF THE YEAR MAY INCREASE BECAUSE INTEREST RATE CUTS HAVE IMPROVED THE CREDITWORTHINESS OF SOME BUYERS, AND DEFERRED DEMAND FROM 2024–2025 IS RETURNING TO THE MARKET. ADDITIONALLY, PRICES ARE CURRENTLY RATHER STABLE, MAKING IT EASIER TO MAKE A DECISION WITHOUT PRESSURE. SEASONALITY ALSO PLAYS A ROLE: THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR IS A TIME FOR PLANS, NEW BUDGETS, AND REVISITING THE TOPIC OF MOVING,” COMMENTS RAFAŁ BIEŃKOWSKI FROM THE ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT AT NIERUCHOMOSCI-ONLINE.PL.
The results of the Sentiment Index—a survey conducted among 1,465 brokers—also indicate potential increased interest in houses and plots. Forecasts of rising demand also prevailed in these categories for Q1 (houses: 46% of votes, plots: 47%), although a significant group of agents also predicts that traffic will remain at the level seen last autumn. The announced spatial planning reform favors this segment. Plots with issued zoning conditions (WZ) are attracting the most interest because they eliminate formal risks and shorten the investment timeline.
Apartment Prices: A Big Question Mark
Forecasts regarding apartment prices in Q1 2026 illustrate just how much of an unknown the market remains today.
This is particularly visible in the category of apartments larger than studios—here, predictions for increases, decreases, and stability are split almost evenly (32–34%). In the case of studios, while the largest group of agents points to stability (42%), a nearly equal group expects increases, and one in five anticipates drops. This shows that even professionals closest to the transactions do not see a dominant scenario. In the coming months, much will depend on local market conditions, credit availability, real buyer interest, and initial asking price levels.
The greatest chances for local price reductions may traditionally appear for:
- Apartments requiring renovation,
- Large square footage units,
- Properties located on the outskirts,
- Units with unfavorable layouts or legal defects.
Conversely, prices are likely to hold for the most popular 2- and 3-room apartments that are well-connected, located in good areas, or investment properties for rent in academic cities.
“IN 2025, APARTMENT PRICES IN MANY CITIES WERE QUITE STABLE, WITHOUT MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS. FORECASTS FROM SOME SURVEY PARTICIPANTS SUGGEST THAT IN 2026, PRESSURE FOR INCREASES MAY RETURN ALONG WITH REBUILDING DEMAND AND BETTER CREDIT AVAILABILITY. BUT IF THIS BECOMES VISIBLE, IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR RATHER THAN IN Q1,” SAYS RAFAŁ BIEŃKOWSKI.
In the case of houses, brokers most often expect price stabilization (44%), but the remaining opinions are split almost evenly between increases (26%) and decreases (28%). This indicates that the house market is heavily dependent on location and standard.
For plots, the stabilization scenario also dominates (44%), but here the advantage of expectations for increases (34%) over decreases (21%) is more distinct. Rising prices for building plots are forecast particularly in the segment of plots with issued zoning conditions (WZ), which is confirmed by broker comments indicating greater price pressure in this area. Land still holds the reputation of a segment that maintains its value more easily, especially where demand for house construction remains high.
More Listings for Larger Apartments
The results of the Nieruchomosci-online.pl Sentiment Index indicate that the housing market is still a client’s market. The number of listings exceeds demand, and there are many indications that the offer may expand moderately in Q1 2026—55% of brokers predict this for apartments larger than studios. Only one in ten agents expects a shrinking offer.
“HOWEVER, THE LARGE NUMBER OF OFFERS IS ONLY PART OF THE PICTURE. BROKERS POINT OUT THAT MANY LISTINGS ARE STILL OVERPRICED—AND IT IS THE PRICE THAT DETERMINES WHETHER AN APARTMENT SELLS QUICKLY OR ‘HANGS’ FOR MONTHS. REASONABLY PRICED OFFERS FIND BUYERS, WHILE THOSE WITH PRICES DETACHED FROM REALITY SIMPLY LINGER ON PORTALS,” ADDS RAFAŁ BIEŃKOWSKI.
As the authors of the sentiment survey note, in the case of houses and plots, one must remember seasonality, which affects these markets more strongly than apartments. The beginning of the year is often a “warm-up” period—some owners hold off on publishing listings until spring when it is easier to showcase the property, and buyers are more willing to visit for viewings and start planning construction or moves. Therefore, broker forecasts suggest maintaining supply at a similar level or a slight increase. However, with the caveat that a more distinct revival in the number of offers may traditionally arrive only in the spring.
About the study: “Real Estate Market Sentiment Index – Q4 2025” is a quarterly survey of market sentiment as assessed by brokers. It was conducted by Nieruchomosci-online.pl and the Wrocław University of Economics in December on a group of 1,465 agents.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/co-dalej-z-cenami-mieszkan-posrednicy-o-scenariuszach-na-2026-rok-41335
