The beginning of 2025 has been relatively weak in terms of sales for residential developers listed on the main and Catalyst markets of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW). As noted by experts from RynekPierwotny.pl, the latest sales statistics of major market players — both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter — confirm that the primary housing market remains in a state of sales slowdown.
Decline in New Apartment Sales Continues
Following last year’s slowdown in the primary residential market, the first quarter of 2025 brought no positive surprises, instead confirming the continuation of a cyclical downturn. This trend has also impacted the leading developers listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, whose sales figures for the first three months of this year show a significant year-on-year drop.
The group of listed residential developers sold 4,959 units in the first quarter of 2025 — a 16% decline compared to the same period last year. However, it also represents a symbolic 2% increase compared to the last quarter of 2024. This could indicate that sales figures on the primary housing market may have reached a cyclical bottom, with a moderate recovery possible later this year.
Waiting for Interest Rate Cuts
What stands out are the relatively good results of several market leaders: Develia, Dom Development, Echo-Archicom, Murapol, as well as smaller companies like Wikana and Dekpol. Thanks to these players, the overall sales decline in the first quarter was “only” 16%. In contrast, the remaining nine developers recorded an average year-on-year sales drop of nearly 40%, which reflects the true depth of the slowdown on the primary residential market.
According to experts from RynekPierwotny.pl, market participants are now largely waiting for the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to make its first statistically significant move — a likely interest rate cut within the next few weeks, the first reduction in a year and a half. Could this become a catalyst for a clear revival in new home sales? Stock market investors seem to think so, as they have resumed accumulating shares of real estate companies, particularly residential developers. But will it pay off?
Developer Profits and Sales Down, but WIG-Real Estate Reaches New Bull Market Highs
If we assume that the stock market prices in future expectations, then the outlook for listed developers seems exceptionally bright. After several months of stabilization — likely combined with another round of share accumulation — the WIG-Real Estate Index surged to record levels, reaching heights not seen in nearly 13 years. The symbolic 5,000-point mark now seems within reach, possibly in the next few sessions.
Interestingly, this rally comes amid a clear decline in sales among most listed residential developers. In 2024, two-thirds of them saw average sales drops of over 40% year-on-year, and the first quarter of 2025 confirmed this downward trend, with no clear signs of a turnaround.
Experts from RynekPierwotny.pl emphasize that it is difficult to expect a near-term rise in profits for listed residential developers. Their share prices have driven the sector index higher, but without clear support from earnings growth, sustaining a long-term upward trend might be challenging. Already last year, the top ten monitored residential developers recorded a 3.5% drop in net profits year-on-year — a minor change statistically, but possibly indicating the exhaustion of the domestic development sector’s profitability growth potential.
What Are Investors Hoping For?
What, then, are stock market investors counting on as they place buy orders for developer shares on the GPW? Most likely, they are betting on the emerging thaw in the mortgage market — already confirmed by March 2025 data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK) — which is expected to strengthen once interest rates are lowered, unlocking pent-up housing demand that has been postponed for “better times.”
Additionally, the new “First Keys” housing subsidy program, although excluding buyers of new developer apartments, could indirectly boost the sales climate for first-hand units. Finally, the strongly positive sentiment seen on the Warsaw Stock Exchange since the beginning of the year — despite recent turmoil caused by global trade tensions following U.S. tariff decisions — may signal a broader acceleration of economic activity in Poland, which would positively impact the housing market, especially the primary segment.
Source: Manager Plus
