The year 2025 brought a clear cooling of Warsaw’s secondary housing market, which until recently had been strongly influenced by demand impulses driven by subsidized mortgage programs and improved access to financing. According to a report prepared by experts from SonarHome.pl, the expiration of the “Safe Mortgage 2%” program and persistently high interest rates have led the market to gradually regain balance. Buyers returned, but their activity became more selective and purchasing decisions more cautious. As a result, prices stopped rising dynamically and instead saw a slight correction, which, however, did not turn into a deeper decline.
The median transaction price of apartments in the capital reached PLN 16,500 per square meter in 2025, representing a 1% year-on-year decrease, while the average price stood at PLN 17,600 per square meter. The beginning of the year brought more noticeable declines (particularly between the first and second quarters), but in the second half of the year the market stabilized and price changes became marginal. It is worth noting that, according to the SonarHome.pl report, data for the fourth quarter are partly estimated, meaning the final picture may still undergo minor adjustments, although these are unlikely to alter the overall stabilization trend.
More transactions and the return of buyers
Despite the slight price correction, the market clearly revived in terms of transaction volume. In 2025, more than 15,200 secondary market apartment sales were completed, marking an increase of approximately 9% compared to the previous year.
“This is a clear signal that demand has not disappeared—it was only temporarily constrained by high financing costs and economic uncertainty. As credit conditions improved, some buyers began returning to the market, increasing its liquidity,” said Anton Bubiel, a housing market expert at SonarHome.pl.
At the same time, the structure of transactions had a significant impact on observed price levels. During the period of high interest rates, the market was dominated by buyers with greater capital, who could afford more expensive properties. As a result, the share of apartments priced above PLN 25,000 per square meter remained above 5%, although slightly lower than the year before.
“In practice, this means that price changes in recent years have not only reflected the classic supply-demand relationship, but also a shift in purchasing structure toward more expensive properties,” Bubiel added.
Negotiations and the role of property size
In 2025, a clear gap persisted between asking prices and transaction prices, averaging 4.23%, slightly less than in the previous year. In practice, this means negotiations remained a standard element of the home-buying process. With a median asking price of PLN 17,200 per square meter and a transaction price of PLN 16,200, the difference amounted to around PLN 1,000 per square meter. For a typical 40 m² apartment, this translated into approximately PLN 40,000 in potential price reductions through negotiation.
It is important to note that asking prices refer to properties listed between January 1 and December 31, 2025, while transaction prices reflect notarial agreements signed during the same period. This is a general comparison rather than a one-to-one match of the same properties. In practice, transactions often occur later than listings, and there are time lags (for example, a listing from 2024 may result in a transaction in 2025), while some listings do not lead to sales at all.
Apartment size was also a key factor differentiating prices. The most expensive segment consisted of units with floor areas between 80 and 100 m², where the median transaction price reached PLN 18,100 per square meter. Meanwhile, the most popular apartments, sized between 40 and 60 m², averaged around PLN 16,000 per square meter. The difference between the extreme segments exceeded PLN 2,200 per square meter and was primarily due to the different structure of properties sold—larger apartments more often included higher-standard units in better locations.
“Particular attention should be paid to the segment of the largest apartments, above 100 m², which behaved differently from the rest of the market,” said Bubiel. “Such units accounted for only about 5% of all transactions, despite representing 11% of the available supply, meaning they sold much more slowly. At the same time, in this segment transaction prices were as much as 24% higher than asking prices, reflecting highly selective demand and significant quality differences between listed properties and those actually purchased in the premium category.”
District-level differences and local market dynamics
According to SonarHome.pl, a platform that enables property valuation and agent matching, Warsaw’s housing market remains highly differentiated by location, both in terms of price levels and dynamics. The most expensive districts were Żoliborz and Śródmieście, where median transaction prices exceeded PLN 20,000 per square meter, followed by Wilanów (around PLN 19,200 per square meter). At the other end of the spectrum were peripheral districts such as Wawer, Rembertów, and Białołęka, where prices ranged between PLN 13,000 and PLN 14,000 per square meter.
Lower prices in these areas are primarily due to their characteristics, including greater distance from the city center, weaker transport links, and a predominance of single-family housing or “bedroom community” developments. In Białołęka, an additional factor is the high supply of apartments, which increases competition and limits price growth. At the same time, this is where the market is most liquid—in 2025, as much as 60% of available supply was sold, showing that lower prices attract a larger number of buyers.
In terms of price dynamics, the largest declines were recorded in Wola and Bielany (around 6% year-on-year), as well as in Wilanów and Żoliborz, where prices fell by about 4%. Slight increases were observed in Praga-Południe (+1%) and Wawer (+4%), although in most districts changes ranged between -3% and -1%. It is also worth noting that in districts with low transaction volumes, such as Rembertów and Wesoła, quarterly price fluctuations were significantly higher due to the limited data sample.
Premium segment and overall market direction
Against the backdrop of a stabilizing market, the premium segment stands out as particularly resilient. In central locations, transactions exceeding PLN 40,000–60,000 per square meter were recorded, and individual apartments reached prices of several million złoty. Examples include sales of units larger than 200 m² for over PLN 10 million and apartments in prestigious developments, demonstrating that demand for luxury real estate remains strong, albeit highly selective.
“The overall picture of the housing market in 2025 is primarily a transition from a phase of rapid growth to one of stabilization. Prices have stopped rising, transaction volumes have increased, and the market has become more balanced and predictable. Both macroeconomic factors—such as interest rates and credit availability—and changes in demand structure played a key role. All indications suggest that Warsaw’s real estate market is entering a more mature phase of development, where location, quality, and the real purchasing power of buyers matter more than before,” concluded Anton Bubiel.
