According to the report by advisory firm Newmark Polska, Office Occupier – Warsaw Office Market, the first quarter of 2026 on the Warsaw office market was marked by a slowdown in tenant activity following a very strong final quarter of the previous year. Demand for office space declined both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. At the same time, development activity continued its downward trend, with the volume of space under construction reaching its lowest level since 2011. Meanwhile, the vacancy rate remained below 10%, despite a slight increase compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and is expected to gradually decline by the end of 2026.
At the end of March 2026, the total stock of modern office space in Warsaw amounted to nearly 6.3 million sqm. Despite new supply delivered in the first quarter, total stock remained virtually unchanged compared to the same period in 2025. Between January and March, developers delivered a total of almost 42,900 sqm across three buildings. At the same time, additional obsolete buildings with a combined area of nearly 24,000 sqm were withdrawn from the market. Since the beginning of 2020, total stock has decreased by more than 400,000 sqm in this way, of which approximately 60,000 sqm has returned to the market in modernized properties.
“Developer activity at the end of the first quarter of 2026 fell to its lowest level since 2011. Just over 115,000 sqm remained under construction, representing a decline of nearly 40% quarter-on-quarter and almost 52% year-on-year. During the analyzed period, developers did not launch any new projects, despite having both prepared developments and secured land for new office buildings,” says Karol Wyka, Managing Director, Office Agency, Newmark Polska.
In the first three months of 2026, tenants signed lease agreements for more than 133,800 sqm, representing a decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter – by 8.8% and nearly 57%, respectively.
“It is worth noting that out of more than 200 transactions concluded during the analyzed period, only one concerned office space larger than 5,000 sqm but smaller than 10,000 sqm. On the one hand, this indicates continued caution among tenants and careful analysis of their needs, while on the other hand it reflects the shrinking availability of larger modules, particularly in the most attractive locations and buildings. In the leasing structure in the first quarter of 2026, central locations dominated, with nearly 72,150 sqm leased, accounting for almost 54% of the total transaction volume. In non-central zones, lease agreements were signed for a total of 61,700 sqm,” says Magdalena Zagórska, Director, Office Agency, Newmark Polska.
As in the same period a year earlier, new leases accounted for the largest share of demand in the first quarter of 2026, representing 48% of all transactions. The remaining 52% consisted of renegotiations and renewals (39%), expansions (9%), pre-let agreements (3%), and owner-occupier deals (1%). The most active tenants on the Warsaw office market in the past quarter were companies from the IT sector (19.7%), business services (12.8%), financial sector (12%), and manufacturing (8.4%).
At the end of the first quarter of 2026, the vacancy rate stood at 9.5%, marking a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, but a decrease of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year. Despite the quarterly increase, the vacancy rate remained below the 10% threshold.
“Due to the forecast of very limited new supply – estimated at around 6,300 sqm over the next three quarters – the vacancy rate could fall to approximately 8% by the end of the year. It is also worth noting that at the end of the first quarter, vacancy in the Central Business District accounted for 5.9% of stock in this zone, while in buildings completed after 2019 it was just 1.5%, which effectively means a lack of available space in office buildings delivered in the past five years within this area,” says Agnieszka Giermakowska, Director, Research & Advisory, ESG Lead, Newmark Polska.
At the end of March 2026, monthly office rents in the most attractive buildings in central Warsaw remained in the range of €22–28 per sqm, while outside the city center they stood at €16–18 per sqm. However, the decreasing availability of office modules of at least 4,000 sqm – particularly in central locations, where only a limited number of buildings offer such space – may translate into upward pressure on prime rents in the coming quarters.
