Tenants on the Warsaw office market remain active and continue to seek centrally located office space, despite a shrinking volume of new deliveries. According to the BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland report “Review – Office Market in Warsaw, Q1 2025”, the current situation is shaped by low supply of completed projects at the start of the year and a limited pipeline of future developments. Additionally, a declining vacancy rate is reducing space availability for tenants.
Tenant Activity Concentrated in Central Zones
Total tenant activity in the Warsaw office market reached approximately 740,000 sqm in 2024, only slightly below 2023 figures. The beginning of 2025 signals market stabilization: from January to March, transaction volume totaled 160,000 sqm—up 17% year-over-year.
Key lease transactions in Q1 2025 included:
- Enter Air, which signed a lease for 9,800 sqm at Bokserska Office Center in the Służewiec zone for its own use.
- CD Projekt, which leased 5,600 sqm in its own office building located in the East zone.
- Elanco Polska, which renewed a lease for 4,400 sqm in The Warsaw Hub B.
- Two confidential transactions: one for a 4,200 sqm renewal in Central Tower, and another for a new 4,100 sqm lease at Moniuszki 1a.
According to BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, 63% of leased space in Q1 was located in central office zones, totaling nearly 101,000 sqm.
New Leases Lead Market Structure
New lease agreements (including pre-leases) represented 48% of total transaction volume in Q1 2025, showing a slight increase of 0.01 pp compared to the same period last year. Renewals made up 26%, expansions 9%, and own-use leases 17%—ratios nearly identical to those observed a year earlier. Pre-leases accounted for 5% of total Q1 transaction volume, up slightly from the previous year, with a more notable annual increase: in the past four quarters, pre-leases comprised 15% of total take-up.
“Almost 50% of total demand came from new leases, including pre-leases. This is an important signal for the market—companies are proactively securing the best locations, aware of the looming supply gap,” noted Małgorzata Fibakiewicz, Head of Office Leasing, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Minimal New Supply — and Outlook Doesn’t Improve
Warsaw’s office stock totaled 6.27 million sqm at the start of 2025, with just 5,600 sqm delivered in Q1—entirely from the CD Projekt office building in the East zone. This represents an 88% decline in new supply compared to Q1 2024 and an 81% drop versus the previous quarter.
Over the past four quarters, new supply has totaled only 61,600 sqm, a 44% decrease year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in new office developments.
By the end of March 2025, the volume of office space under construction had dropped 5% year-over-year, reaching 267,000 sqm, of which over 80% is located in central districts.
“In central Warsaw districts, the biggest challenge for developers remains the limited availability of attractive investment plots,” added Fibakiewicz.
Major projects currently under construction and due in Q4 2025 include:
- The Bridge (47,000 sqm) by Ghelamco
- Office House (31,000 sqm) by Echo Investment
Meanwhile, Upper One (35,000 sqm) by Strabag is scheduled for completion in Q4 2026.
Vacancy Rates Declining, Rents Remain Stable (for Now)
Due to low quarterly supply and developer inactivity, Warsaw’s office vacancy rate dropped to 10.5%, with central locations falling to just 7.4%—a 2.1 pp decrease year-over-year, signaling a strong return of demand to prestigious zones.
By the end of Q1 2025, Warsaw had 657,000 sqm of vacant office space. Notably, over 13% of that was in buildings older than 10 years. The Służewiec zone alone accounted for 20% of the city’s total vacancy.
Rental levels in Warsaw remain stable, though upward pressure is likely.
“Top-tier buildings in central Warsaw command monthly rents of €22–27 per sqm, while non-central locations see €16–18 per sqm. Premium properties may exceed €27 per sqm. Given the shrinking new supply and limited availability, we expect rents for the best office space to rise,” commented Wiktoria Weilandt, Associate, Office Leasing, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Outlook: Central Zones in Focus, Supply Crunch Looms
The Warsaw office market in early 2025 is marked by robust tenant demand—especially in central locations—and a worrying shortfall in new supply. As vacancy rates drop and high-quality space becomes scarcer, tenants may face increasing rents and fewer choices. Forward-thinking companies are already responding by signing early leases or pre-leases. Developers, on the other hand, will need to contend with limited land availability and rising construction costs, all while navigating an increasingly competitive and compressed market landscape.
Source: CEO.com.pl
