In mid-May 2026, the average asking price of new apartments in Warsaw exceeded PLN 20,000 per sqm for the first time in history. However, Otodom experts are cooling market panic. When asked whether Poles can still afford their own home, they argue that the record does not mean a sudden collapse in housing affordability. It is primarily the result of a clear change in the structure of supply. How does this figure compare with transaction prices and the actual purchasing power of buyers?
Key information
The average asking price of new apartments in Warsaw at PLN 20,000 per sqm is now a fact. It is the result of new, expensive projects being launched for sale, with prices above PLN 23,100 per sqm.
In mid-May, the average transaction price in the capital was as much as 13.7% lower than the average asking price.
Otodom experts forecast that in the second quarter of 2026, the average transaction price in Warsaw, according to Otodom’s own data, will reach around PLN 17,100–17,200 per sqm.
The mechanism behind the May record: 900 expensive apartments pushed up Warsaw’s average
“Crossing the threshold of PLN 20,000 per sqm is not only a media sensation, but also a market one. Prices have never been this high, but it is worth understanding the mechanism behind this record. The key role was played mainly by very expensive new launches. In just two weeks, more than 900 apartments entered the market, with an average price of PLN 23,100 per sqm,” says Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Director of Market Research at Otodom.
At the same time, in the first half of May, buyers purchased 800 apartments at an average price of PLN 17,300 per sqm. Since cheaper units disappeared from the market and were replaced by new, much more expensive ones, the average Warsaw asking price almost automatically rose to PLN 20,063 per sqm. This is extremely important information for buyers, because it means that the prices of units already available for sale mostly did not change at all.
Asking prices vs. transaction prices: how much do buyers really pay for apartments in Warsaw?
“NBP data confirms what we have been observing in Otodom analyses for a long time. The price shown in an advertisement differs from the price recorded in the notarial deed. In the first quarter, the difference between asking and transaction prices amounted to PLN 1,581 per sqm. This means that most apartments sold in the first quarter had a per-square-metre price below the market average. This does not necessarily prove that buyers obtained discounts of 8–9%, as the difference between asking and transaction prices might suggest, but it certainly shows their interest in apartments from the cheaper part of developers’ offers,” admits Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
To translate the latest May data into a concrete example, we need to look at the total prices of apartments offered in the capital. According to Otodom research, the average apartment available for sale on the new-build market has 55 sqm and costs almost PLN 1.1 million. Meanwhile, buyers who decided to purchase in the first half of May chose apartments averaging 54 sqm, for which they paid around PLN 930,000, based on the average price of apartments sold. This means that the average transaction on the new-build market in May was completed at a clearly lower level than suggested by the total price of the average apartment on offer — by PLN 166,000.
New-build or secondary market apartment? A surprising price tie
As Katarzyna Kuniewicz points out, NBP data for the first quarter of 2026 reveals a surprising picture of the Warsaw housing market. Despite large differences in asking prices, average transaction prices for new-build and second-hand apartments were almost identical. For new apartments, the figure was PLN 16,475 per sqm, while on the secondary market it was PLN 16,393 per sqm — a difference of less than 1%.
“For the first time in two years, the average transaction price on the new-build market turned out to be higher than transaction prices on the secondary market. What is more, our ongoing monitoring already allows us to forecast results for the current second quarter*. Since current Otodom readings almost overlap with official NBP reports, we expect that in the second quarter the final average transaction price in the capital, as announced by NBP, will be around PLN 16,800–16,900 per sqm,” says Otodom’s Director of Market Research.
*According to NBP methodology, this refers to the months from March to May.
Source: CEO.com.pl
