In March, Warsaw and Poznań were the only major Polish metropolitan markets where the average price per square metre of new homes offered by developers increased. This marks yet another month of growth in those two cities. In the remaining metropolitan areas, average prices remained stable, according to preliminary BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl figures.
In Warsaw, the average price per square metre of new homes has risen by as much as 8% over the past four months alone — the same increase that had previously taken two years to materialise. Poznań, which for most of last year was seen as an oasis of price stability, recorded an increase of more than 5% over the last five months, whereas previously such a rise had taken a year and a half.
“This does not mean that developers are raising prices across the board,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl. “At present, the main factor affecting average prices is the changing structure of a shrinking supply. The cheapest units are disappearing from the market, while newly launched projects are largely concentrated in the higher price segments.”
According to preliminary BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data, the average price per square metre of homes offered by developers in Warsaw rose by 1% in March, approaching PLN 19,700.
New homes in Poznań also became 1% more expensive. The increase to PLN 14,200 per square metre was driven by the addition of new developments priced between PLN 17,500 and PLN 29,000 per square metre.
In Kraków, premium-segment homes also entered the market, but on too small a scale to affect the average price, which remained at its February level of around PLN 17,000 per square metre.
The remaining metropolitan areas also saw stable prices in March. In the Tri-City area, the average stood at PLN 17,700 per square metre, in Wrocław at PLN 15,300, in Łódź at just under PLN 11,500, and in the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis at around PLN 11,300.
On an annual basis, Łódź was the only metropolitan market where the average price per square metre of new homes remained unchanged. In the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, the increase was 2%.
The RynekPierwotny.pl expert notes that both of these metropolitan areas are experiencing an oversupply of housing — at the current sales pace, it would take more than two years to absorb the entire available stock.
In the other metropolitan areas, the average price per square metre in March was higher than a year earlier: up 3% in Kraków, 4% in Wrocław, 6% in Poznań, 9% in the Tri-City area, and as much as 10% in Warsaw.
Marek Wielgo points out that more affordable homes — those priced at up to PLN 15,000 per square metre — are rapidly disappearing from developers’ offerings in Warsaw. According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, their number fell by 15% in the first quarter, from 5,500 to 4,700 units. At the same time, the number of more expensive homes — priced above PLN 20,000 per square metre — increased by 21%, reaching nearly 5,000 units.
“Fearing the potential economic consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, some developers may revise their business strategies,” Marek Wielgo comments. “In conditions of uncertain demand, it is easier to pursue higher-margin projects and target wealthier buyers who are less dependent on mortgage financing.”
In his view, two factors will remain crucial for the direction of price changes in the coming months: the pace of home sales and the scale of new projects entering the market. If supply continues to shrink while demand remains at its current level, upward pressure on average prices may persist — even without significant increases in official price lists. On the other hand, any revival in supply, particularly in the more affordable segment, could limit this effect and stabilise average asking prices.
