After three quarters of 2025, the Polish warehouse market maintains a stable structure in which demand, supply and investor activity remain in balance. A total of 4.54 million sq m of leased space and the high share of renegotiations (52%) indicate that overall demand remains strong, with tenants increasingly focused on optimisation and long-term cost management. Meanwhile, developers’ cautious approach and the drop in new supply (1.55 million sq m) show that although the market continues to grow, its momentum has slowed. The vacancy rate remains stable at 8.2%—showing neither a clear decline nor a rise. On the investment market, there was an increase in sale-and-leaseback transactions, along with a greater number of active investors, which may translate into improved liquidity for the sector. These insights come from the latest report by AXI IMMO, Poland’s largest commercial real estate advisory firm, titled “Warehouse Market in Poland in Q1–Q3 2025.”
Investment Market: Warehouses Just Behind Offices
AXI IMMO analysts point to a revival in the commercial real estate investment sector. Industrial and logistics assets accounted for 35% of transactions, generating over EUR 870 million (+18% YoY) between January and the end of September 2025. Among the largest transactions were: a CEE-record sale & leaseback of two properties purchased by Realty Income Corporation from Eko-Okna for EUR 253.5 million; the sale of LPP’s distribution centre (103,800 sq m) in the Bydgoszcz region to Reico IS; and a sale & leaseback of Tenneco’s 182,800 sq m portfolio in Upper Silesia purchased by Adventum.
Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Capital Markets at AXI IMMO, explains:
“After a period of hesitation and a wide gap between buyer and seller pricing expectations, 2025 has brought long-awaited stabilization and a clear increase in liquidity. Warehouses remain a safe haven for investors thanks to their resilience to economic fluctuations, while this year’s momentum has been boosted by the large share of sale & leaseback deals—allowing companies to free up capital and enabling investors to secure long-term income. We are also seeing more activity from Polish and regional capital, which has effectively used the stabilisation period to take advantage of favourable pricing opportunities.”
Demand Driven by Renegotiations
Between January and the end of September 2025, a total of 4.54 million sq m of warehouse space was leased in Poland (+20% YoY). AXI IMMO analysts highlight that renegotiations accounted for 52% of gross demand, with this component rising 13 percentage points year-on-year. The most active regions were Mazowieckie (1.036 million sq m), Dolnośląskie (709,000 sq m), Śląskie (699,000 sq m) and Łódzkie (625,000 sq m). Net demand—covering new leases and expansions—reached 2.19 million sq m, only 6% lower than the previous year.
Selected major lease transactions from Q1–Q3 2025 include: an extension and expansion by Agata Meble at Mapletree Piotrków II (Łódzkie) for 128,200 sq m; an extension by a logistics operator at P3 Wrocław II (Dolnośląskie) for 78,100 sq m; and a new lease for 67,800 sq m at 7R Park Gdańsk III (Pomorskie).
Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial & Logistics at AXI IMMO, comments:
“After three quarters of 2025, we see that the Polish warehouse market remains resilient to macroeconomic turbulence. We observe gradual absorption of available space, driven primarily by consumer-related sectors such as e-commerce, retail chains, distribution and logistics. Amid current market conditions, industrial growth remains selective and largely dependent on the specific sector. Tenants choose new leases mainly due to cost optimisation needs or operational constraints in existing locations.”
Less New Supply – Market Growth Slows
Total modern warehouse stock in Poland reached 36.45 million sq m at the end of September 2025 (+7% YoY). Developers delivered 1.55 million sq m of new space from January to September, a 26% YoY decline. The three largest completions in Q3 2025 were: P3 Wrocław (95,000 sq m) and GLP Wrocław V Logistics Centre (67,600 sq m) in Dolnośląskie, and Panattoni Park Sosnowiec Expo (62,100 sq m) in Śląskie.
As of the end of September, 1.56 million sq m remained under construction (–20% YoY). The largest pipelines are located in Mazowieckie (533,000 sq m), Pomorskie (221,000 sq m) and Śląskie (191,000 sq m). Speculative space under construction stands at 705,000 sq m (–22% YoY). Developers continue to act cautiously, limiting speculative projects and prioritising schemes with secured pre-leases (minimum 40–50%) or built-to-suit (BTS) facilities.
Vacancy & Rents: Stability with Selective Adjustments
The vacancy rate has remained within a stable range of 7.4–8.4%. At the end of September 2025, it stood at 8.2%, unchanged quarter-to-quarter. The highest vacancy levels were recorded in Lubuskie and Świętokrzyskie (both 17.2%), as well as in Lubelskie (13.2%). Among the “big five” core markets, the highest availability was reported in Dolnośląskie (10.7%).
Headline rents remain stable, with a slight upward trend for new and planned developments. For big-box facilities, rents range from EUR 3.6 to 6.0 per sq m per month. Effective rents, including landlord incentives, may be up to 20% lower depending on vacancy levels, lease length and unit size.
Market Maturity and Strategic Decision-Making
Renata Osiecka, owner and managing partner at AXI IMMO, concludes:
“Recent months clearly show that the warehouse market in Poland has reached a long-expected level of maturity. Emotions have eased, giving way to calculated decision-making and long-term strategy. Demand remains healthy, while limited new supply stabilises vacancy levels and expected rents. We are also seeing that both tenant and investor decisions are increasingly strategic. Renegotiations of leases signed during the record period of 2021–2022 and optimisation of occupied space will remain key elements of the warehouse sector through the end of the year. At the same time, the market is entering a phase of transformation: improving liquidity and lower interest rates should translate into increased investor activity as well as gradual yield compression.”
