In 2025, the Polish warehouse market showed clear signs of stabilization, with both developers and tenants maintaining a cautious approach. As the Polish economy accelerated in the second half of the year, overall market sentiment improved.
The sector remained one of the most stable segments across the entire commercial real estate market, accounting for over 30% of total investment volume in 2025. Nevertheless, market participants are expected to continue focusing on risk mitigation in response to evolving economic and geopolitical conditions.
“In 2025, warehouses—similarly to the previous year—accounted for 45% of all valuations prepared by our team, with the vast majority serving as collateral for financing. This reflects their importance for the financial sector. Financial institutions expect valuations to clearly identify both opportunities and risks associated with investments, highlighting how crucial it is for valuers to properly assess the strengths and weaknesses of a property.
To meet banks’ requirements, we analyze legal, technical, and commercial documentation of warehouse assets. We position each property within the broader warehouse sector based on our market data.
ESG analysis is also becoming increasingly important in the valuation process and its impact on value requires a broader and more detailed assessment than before,” said Agnieszka Bogucka, Senior Valuer, Valuation and Advisory at Avison Young.
Warehouse stock exceeds 37 million sqm
Total modern warehouse stock in Poland exceeded 37 million sqm, underlining both the maturity and high level of development of the market. The so-called “Big Five” markets continue to dominate, accounting for over 70% of total stock.
Tenant activity rises as renegotiations continue to dominate
Tenant activity increased significantly, although renegotiations continued to dominate demand structure. Tenants still prioritize operational continuity and cost control over relocations or expansions.
High tenant activity was consistently recorded in the “Big Five” markets, which accounted for 80% of total demand. Additionally, Warsaw, Upper Silesia, and Central Poland dominated in terms of leased space, each exceeding 1 million sqm.
Developers remain selective and financing-driven
Developer activity remained limited, with only 1.8 million sqm under construction—primarily within projects tailored to specific tenants (BTS/BTO). The launch of new developments largely depends on securing pre-let agreements, which are crucial for obtaining financing. As a result, speculative development remains constrained and subject to careful risk management.
Vacancy rates ease, but regional differences remain significant
Vacant space decreased to approximately 2.5 million sqm, translating into an average vacancy rate of around 7%. The highest vacancy levels were recorded in Western Poland and Wrocław, prompting landlords in these areas to show increasing flexibility in lease negotiations. The lowest vacancy rates were observed in Opole, Kraków, and Szczecin.
Rental rates remain stable, with pressure in prime and high-vacancy markets
Rental rates remained relatively stable, although upward pressure was observed in new prime projects. The highest rents continue to be recorded in the “Big Five” markets. Effective rents are under pressure in regions with elevated vacancy levels, where landlords offer incentive packages to attract tenants.
The market is entering a more mature phase
Looking ahead, current trends are expected to persist. The Polish warehouse market is transitioning from a phase of rapid expansion to a more mature stage characterized by strategic investments aligned with real demand.
“As available supply tightens, lease renewals are likely to continue dominating demand structure. New transactions will be more selective, with a greater focus on expansions. Developers will remain cautious when launching new projects, concentrating on core markets and those with the lowest vacancy rates. In locations with higher levels of vacant space, landlords will increasingly offer incentives to attract potential tenants,” said Dorota Koseska, Director, Industrial Agency at Avison Young.
Tenant perspective: more choice, more analysis, longer decisions
From the tenants’ perspective, the current warehouse market environment is more balanced than during the peak investment boom. Increased availability in some locations provides greater choice and stronger negotiating power, encouraging tenants to consider a range of options—from lease renegotiations to relocation into modern, higher-standard facilities.
Tenant decisions are becoming increasingly analytical, with companies focusing on total occupancy costs rather than just base rent.
Operating costs matter more than base rent
Energy costs, building efficiency, and operational functionality play a key role. There is also growing demand for modern facilities offering enhanced technical specifications, such as higher floor load capacity, increased power supply, and the ability to implement warehouse automation.
Lease planning is becoming more strategic
Strategic lease planning is becoming standard practice, resulting in more frequent renegotiations or optimization of occupied space instead of rapid relocation decisions. More companies are beginning market analysis as early as 18–24 months before lease expiration to strengthen their negotiating position and secure the best available locations.
Decision-making processes are taking longer
Companies are analyzing their logistics needs and market options more thoroughly, which is extending decision-making and negotiation processes compared to the peak market period.
Key trends shaping the market in 2025
A new supply-demand balance
Following the rapid expansion phase of 2020–2022, the warehouse sector is now entering a more balanced stage of development. Developers have reduced speculative construction, while demand remains stable.
As a result, an increasing number of new developments are being launched only after securing tenants through pre-let or build-to-suit agreements, reducing the risk of delivering projects without confirmed demand.
Automation is redefining warehouse design
Advancing logistics automation and the growing importance of robotics are driving more technologically advanced warehouse designs. New facilities incorporate higher energy requirements, stronger floor load capacities, increased storage heights, and advanced IT infrastructure. In many cases, buildings are designed from the outset to accommodate automated storage systems or logistics robots.
Logistics locations are becoming more specialized
As the market evolves, increasing specialization of logistics regions is becoming evident. In major metropolitan areas, urban warehouses and last-mile distribution centers are gaining importance, supporting fast deliveries to end consumers. Meanwhile, regions with strong industrial bases are developing as hubs for production facilities and logistics supporting manufacturing and assembly processes.
Warehouses are becoming part of production infrastructure
Manufacturing companies and businesses with advanced logistics processes are playing an increasingly important role in demand structure. This is driving demand for facilities with higher technical specifications, including increased floor load capacity, crane installation capabilities, higher power supply, and dedicated production zones. In many cases, warehouses are no longer purely storage facilities but integral components of production infrastructure.
The quality gap is becoming more visible
A growing divide is becoming visible between modern Class A facilities and older warehouse stock. Tenants are increasingly choosing buildings that meet ESG standards, offer higher energy efficiency, and provide better working conditions. Older properties—especially those located outside key logistics corridors—may require modernization or repositioning to remain competitive.
Global supply chain reconfiguration is strengthening Poland’s role
Globally, one of the most important trends remains the reorganization of supply chains. Companies are increasingly diversifying production and relocating parts of their operations closer to end markets to enhance supply security. Nearshoring and reshoring processes are strengthening the role of Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland, as a key production and logistics hub for the European market.
Outlook: cautious growth, selective development, stronger tenant leverage
The Polish warehouse market is no longer driven by the pace of expansion seen a few years ago. Instead, it is becoming more selective, more data-driven, and more closely tied to real operational needs. This shift does not weaken the sector’s position. On the contrary, it confirms that warehouses remain one of the most resilient and strategically important segments of the commercial property market in Poland.
