In 2024, the number of detected fake invoices reached its highest level since 2018, increasing by over 130% year-over-year. Experts commenting on these figures highlight the effectiveness of improved control measures and better utilization of available data. However, they also emphasize that the scale of the phenomenon may be larger than previously assumed. At the same time, they do not rule out a political factor influencing this surge. Last year, nearly 292,000 fake invoices were uncovered, of which nearly 86,000 were issued in 2023, slightly fewer in 2022. Their gross value amounted to 8.71 billion PLN, which is over 51% more than in 2023.
Increase of Over 130%
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, 291,600 fake invoices were detected in 2024 during tax and customs-fiscal inspections. This represents a 130.8% increase from 2023, when 126,400 such cases were recorded. The Ministry reports that the number of fake invoices detected last year was the highest since 2018, when it reached 270,800. It also notes that data from 2019 to 2023 may indicate a growing, previously undetected scale of VAT fraud before 2024. In 2019, 229,000 fake invoices were uncovered, in 2020 – 153,400, in 2021 – 201,100, and in 2022 – 178,300.
– “With fewer tax and customs-fiscal inspections, significantly more fake invoices were detected. I understand this concerns allegations of falsification rather than definitive proof, as these cases have not yet been adjudicated. However, this raises suspicions that VAT fraud was already severe in 2023 and worsened further in 2024. It indicates a level of tolerance for tax evasion through such invoices. At the same time, VAT as a tax is in a deep conceptual crisis,” comments Professor Witold Modzelewski, president of the Institute of Tax Studies and former Deputy Minister of Finance.
Dr. Anna Wojciechowska from Solveo Advisory and an expert with the Business Centre Club (BCC) notes that the over 130% year-over-year increase can be interpreted in two ways. On one hand, the higher number of detected fake invoices indicates more effective control measures and better use of available data, which is a positive development for tightening the tax system. On the other hand, these figures may suggest that the problem remains significant and could be larger than previously assumed. Wojciechowska, a former head of the Tax Control Department at the Tax Inspection Office in Gdańsk, points to the actions of some companies that, in an attempt to improve their financial situation, may increasingly resort to illegal tax avoidance mechanisms.
– “It is difficult to determine definitively why there has been such a significant increase. It may not only be due to an objectively higher or lower number of violations in a given year. It is also possible that political factors play a role. The previous government claimed to be closing the so-called VAT gap. Therefore, an increasing number of detected fake invoices in the following years would be inconsistent with their political message. Meanwhile, the current government has an interest in demonstrating its own successes and discrediting the claims of its predecessors,” says Marek Niczyporuk, a legal advisor and tax consultant at the law firm Ars Aequi.
Professor Modzelewski adds that there was no qualitative change in the approach to fake invoices in 2024 compared to 2023. According to the expert, until 2020, many effective measures were implemented to address VAT fraud. One notable success was the introduction of mandatory split payments. In Dr. Wojciechowska’s opinion, the significant year-over-year increase was primarily driven by the ongoing digitalization of processes in tax offices. The increasing use of data from JPK_VAT files by the tax administration also played a role. Advanced analysis of taxpayer-submitted information provides authorities with new tools to detect irregularities more effectively.
– “Every detected fake invoice should, of course, be considered a success for the state and its institutions. However, I hope that these figures were not influenced by government directives. In other words, the aim should not have been to uncover more cases under the previous administration and fewer under the current one,” adds attorney Marek Niczyporuk.
Fake Invoices Under Scrutiny
Ministry data also shows that last year’s discoveries included 8,200 fake invoices issued in 2024. Additionally, there were 85,800 from 2023, 85,200 from 2022, and over 110,000 from previous years.
– “Tax obligations generally expire after five years, counted from the end of the year in which the tax payment deadline passed. The National Revenue Administration (KAS) focuses on analyzing periods that are still subject to enforcement or corrections. Today, the situation is much better than it was a few years ago when many audits were initiated in the last or penultimate year before the statute of limitations expired,” adds an expert from Ars Aequi.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the gross value of fake invoices detected in 2024 during tax and customs-fiscal inspections amounted to 8.71 billion PLN. This represents a 51.2% increase compared to 2023, when it was 5.76 billion PLN.
– “The lower growth rate in value – 51.2%, compared to the number of detected cases – 130.8%, may indicate that fraudsters are operating with smaller amounts more frequently. It is possible that this is a strategy to avoid detection. Smaller amounts may attract less attention in monitoring systems and be harder to immediately identify as fake. Nevertheless, the tax authorities appear to be effectively detecting even these cases, which demonstrates increasingly sophisticated use of analytical tools, such as JPK_VAT data,” explains the BCC expert.
According to Professor Modzelewski, if the gross value of fake invoices amounted to 8.71 billion PLN, then the detected fraud remains relatively small in scale. The former Deputy Minister of Finance argues that the number of revealed irregularities does not reflect their significance. He points out that cautious estimates suggest that improper VAT refunds likely amount to 40-50 billion PLN annually. This means that tax authorities are still far from achieving substantial fiscal success in tackling this issue.
– “From the state budget’s perspective, 8.71 billion PLN is a significant amount. In the long run, the key will not only be further improving fraud detection but also significantly reducing the phenomenon itself. If the increase in detections does not translate into a real reduction in the number of fake invoices issued in the future, it may suggest that audits alone are insufficient to eliminate this problem. Further systemic changes will be necessary,” concludes Dr. Anna Wojciechowska.
