Poland’s economy staged a strong recovery in 2024, with real GDP rising by 2.9%, a significant improvement compared to just 0.2% growth in 2023. The rebound was primarily driven by private consumption, supported by strong wage growth, increased government support for households, improved consumer confidence, and easing inflationary pressures. Projections indicate real GDP growth of 3.6% in 2025 and a moderate 3.1% in 2026.
Labor Market Trends: Stability with Demographic Constraints
Employment levels declined in the first half of 2024, reflecting weak economic activity in the previous year. The unemployment rate stood at 2.9% by the end of the year. In 2025 and 2026, employment is expected to grow moderately, although growth will be constrained by a stagnant labor force and a shrinking working-age population. Nevertheless, increasing employment among Ukrainian refugees is anticipated to support overall labor market dynamics. Unemployment is forecast to fall slightly to 2.8% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026.
Inflation Outlook
HICP inflation reached 3.7% in 2024. In 2025, a temporary increase to 4.7% is forecast, driven by the unfreezing of energy prices and higher excise duties. As the largest economy in Central and Eastern Europe and one of the fastest-growing in the EU, Poland also boasts a stable labor market with consistently low unemployment. Eurostat ranked Poland as having the second-lowest unemployment rate in the EU in 2024.
Polish Warehouse Market: Stabilization with a Cautious Outlook
“At the beginning of 2025, Poland’s warehouse market showed signs of stabilization, accompanied by growing caution among both developers and tenants, as market players focus more on risk management amid shifting economic and geopolitical dynamics,” noted Dorota Koseska, Director, Industrial Agency at Avison Young.
Total modern warehouse stock in Poland surpassed 35 million square meters. However, this milestone also signals a potential slowdown in future growth. Vacant space reached a record 3 million square meters, translating to an average vacancy rate of just over 8%.
In Q1, lease renegotiations dominated, accounting for around 60% of transactions, as tenants prioritized operational continuity and cost control over relocation or expansion.
Investment and Development Trends
New investments slowed significantly, with only 1.4 million sqm under construction. The focus shifted toward BTS (build-to-suit) and BTO (build-to-own) projects. Speculative developments became rare and were managed with greater risk oversight.
Rents remained stable, ranging between €3.70 and €5.50 per sqm per month, depending on location and asset quality. However, effective rental rates came under pressure in regions with high vacancy, prompting landlords to offer more competitive lease terms.
Tenant activity was strongest in Warsaw, Upper Silesia, Łódź, and the Tri-City region, with the year’s largest lease agreement signed in this latter area. The highest vacancy rates were recorded in Western Poland and Wrocław, where landlords increasingly offered flexible lease terms and competitive pricing.
“We expect current trends to continue. Lease renewals will remain dominant in demand, while developers will stay selective with new projects. Nearshoring is emerging as a key growth driver, especially in border regions. Poland’s warehouse market is transitioning from rapid expansion to a more mature phase characterized by strategic, demand-driven investments,” added Koseska.
Tenant Perspective: Flexibility and Customization Take Priority
The Polish warehouse market is increasingly favorable to tenants, particularly in regions with higher vacancy or older, less adaptable facilities.
In contrast, landlord-favorable conditions persist in areas with limited availability, especially for large spaces (>30,000 sqm). Developers with ready-to-lease assets hold a stronger negotiating position, as availability often outweighs price—especially with new project delivery timelines stretching 8–12 months.
“As a result, the market is becoming more hybrid, with the advantage going to those best prepared to meet current demand—through flexibility or immediate availability,” summarized Katarzyna Madej, Director, Industrial Agency at Avison Young.
In recent years, tenants have moved away from standard warehouse space, seeking tailored solutions aligned with their operational needs.
Key Tenant Expectations for Developers:
- Customization for specific processes (e.g., light manufacturing, assembly, packaging, or specialized logistics)
- Flexible lease terms and phased space occupation with future expansion options
- Proactive support throughout the project—from technical consulting and permitting to timely delivery
There’s also growing emphasis on:
- Sustainability, with demand for certified buildings (e.g., BREEAM), energy-efficient systems, and readiness for renewable energy
- Strategic locations, where access to transport infrastructure, workforce availability, and last-mile logistics outweigh pure cost considerations
- A partner mindset, where developers understand and support tenants throughout the entire investment cycle
2025 Trends: Nearshoring, ESG, and Automation
“Nearshoring is taking shape as companies move operations closer to Western and Northern Europe. Poland—particularly its eastern and southeastern regions—is benefiting from its location and infrastructure,” commented Łukasz Ciepły, Director, Industrial Agency at Avison Young.
Regions with high availability are competing fiercely for tenants. In Western Poland and high-vacancy areas, landlords face increased pressure, which supports flexible leases and financial incentives—especially attractive for budget-conscious companies.
“ESG is becoming increasingly important in tenant decisions—standards like BREEAM, solar panels, and energy recovery systems are now expected,” Ciepły emphasized. “Modern, green buildings have a clear advantage over outdated warehouses.”
Rising operating costs and labor shortages are driving investments in warehouse automation and smart solutions, particularly in logistics hubs and e-commerce centers.
Source: ceo.com.pl – The Polish warehouse market adapts to new realities
