Gold prices have been through an exceptionally volatile year. After surging to record levels in early 2026 and then correcting sharply, the market has entered a calmer phase — but individual investors are again showing more interest in physical bullion. Analysts point to geopolitics, US public finances and changing expectations for financial markets as the main forces shaping demand.
Paweł Mazurek, CEO and development director at Mennica Mazovia, told Newseria that retail investors are returning to gold after the strong gains at the beginning of 2026 and the subsequent correction.
Gold remains sensitive to geopolitical risk
According to World Gold Council data cited by Newseria, 2025 was an exceptional year for the precious metal, with dozens of new all-time highs and a sharp increase in the annual average price. The first half of 2026 then showed how quickly sentiment can reverse when investors react to geopolitical developments and changes in risk appetite.
Mazurek argues that short-term speculation has amplified price swings, but says the long-term investment case for gold has not fundamentally changed. Gold continues to be treated as a defensive asset during periods of political uncertainty, financial-market stress and concern about the credibility of sovereign debt.
America’s debt burden is becoming part of the gold story
The condition of US public finances is increasingly important for investors. US federal debt crossed the $40 trillion threshold in August 2026, intensifying debate over the sustainability of borrowing and the long-term cost of servicing the debt.
Normally, high yields on US Treasuries can make non-yielding gold less attractive. The calculation changes, however, when investors interpret higher yields not as a sign of economic strength but as compensation for greater fiscal risk. In that environment, some investors may prefer to diversify part of their savings into physical gold.
Geopolitical tensions add another layer of uncertainty. Gold typically attracts more attention when investors fear disruptions to global trade, energy supplies or financial markets. Conversely, rapid changes in geopolitical expectations can trigger profit-taking and sharp corrections.
Physical bullion demand is recovering
World Gold Council figures cited by Newseria show that total gold demand, including over-the-counter transactions, remained broadly stable year on year in the second quarter of 2026. Demand in the first half of the year increased slightly, while the value of transactions reached record levels because of elevated prices.
Mazurek says individual investors have started buying physical gold and silver more actively again as precious-metal prices recover from the earlier correction. He expects gold to retain support from geopolitical uncertainty and concerns surrounding US finances, although a repeat of the extreme price moves seen in 2025 and early 2026 is not necessarily the base case.
The direction of equity markets may also matter. If the long-running stock-market rally weakens, demand for defensive assets could strengthen. That means gold’s next major move may depend not on a single factor, but on the interaction between US debt, interest rates, geopolitics and investors’ appetite for risk.
Sources: Newseria; World Gold Council; US Treasury data.
